Videos of Angangueo Storms and Aftermath

Local residents posted many videos of the storm and the subsequent damage; the destruction of Angangueo was also covered by several news agencies in Mexico. The annotated list that follows contains videos we thought would be most informative. As you look at these videos, note the high watermarks on the buildings. The high water destroyed shops and the first floors of many homes on the main street.

The first part of this 9-minute video shows the hailstorm that occurred on Monday 1 February (video indicates the hail occurred on the 2nd but a visitor to the area and a local resident maintain that the hail occurred on the first). Additional footage, probably from the 3rd, shows a raging Rio Puerco and you can see where the rushing waters take down a foot bridge. Later footage from the 4th shows an even more turbulent river eroding away the foundations of a building. The ending shots show a landslide that destroyed numerous homes and took several lives:

Slideshow of damage in valley north of the central plaza with some shots of a landslide:

Short videos showing water running down the west side of Angangueo at 7:40-7:48 AM on 5 February:

Water rushing into main street from the east near Hotel Juarez and Romero store 8:06AM, 5 February:

A compilation of scenes of the damage to Angangueo accompanied by “Bearing the Cross” created by John Debney for the “The Passion of the Christ” soundtrack:

Interview with Governor of Michoacan, Leonel Godoy, with background shots of destruction, 9 Feb or earlier:

Reporter describing destruction while standing in front of the cultural center. 5 February:

Reporter describing devastation and rescue activities showing the work of the Army, Cruz Roja, and volunteers; finishing with an interview of the parish priest, 6-7 February:

Other videos appear in the “Angangueo Storm” playlist on the Monarch Watch YouTube Channel.

Map of Angangueo and the Surrounding Area

We have created a Google map of the municipality of Angangueo (near the monarch overwintering sites in Mexico) and the surrounding area. Placemarks have been added to identify buildings, locations, and other features that have been discussed in reference to the disastrous storms that have affected this region in recent weeks. You may navigate around the map below, view a larger map, or download the actual map file (angangueo.kmz) for use with Google Earth.

View Angangueo in a larger map

Timeline of the Disaster in Angangueo

The notes that follow are reconstructions of the disastrous events that occurred in the municipality of Angangueo (in the area of the monarch butterfly overwintering sites in Mexico) from 31 January to 10 February 2010. This timeline is based on weather records and fragments of information gleaned from emails and news accounts. If any of you know of items that should be included in this timeline, or of corrections that are needed, please contact us.

31 January – moderate rainfall

1 February – hail storm at end of front number 28

2 February – front number 29 arrives bringing heavy rains

3 February – heavy rains continue, affecting 20 states in Mexico

4 February – continuation of heavy rains over central Mexico, many areas flooded – landslides begin in Angangueo – several dramatic rescues – people begin leaving – central plaza flooded with water coming from both the north and east – high water and destruction of buildings and bridges along the stream (Rio Puerco) that runs through town – torrents rip through town sweeping away cars and trucks in a rush of water filled with logs and boulders – skies clear around midnight with temperature around 50F(10C)

5 February – flooding continues but subsides as day progresses – overnight lows of 36F(2C) – the sun appears for the first time in 5 days – the exodus continues – searching the landslide for victims – damage assessment and clean up begins

6 February – assessment and clean up continues – overnight lows of 27F(-3C) – more people leave for shelter in nearby towns

7-9 February – heavy equipment is used to clear roads

10 February – the army takes control and Angangueo is officially evacuated

Disaster in Mexico

There has been a disaster of extraordinary proportions in the heart of the monarch overwintering area. Unprecedented rainfall from 31 January – 4 February led to flooding and landslides that resulted in the loss of many lives and the near destruction of the towns of Angangueo and Ocampo, the two municipalities that serve as hubs for those visiting the monarch colonies at Sierra Chincua and El Rosario. The community of El Rosario was also hit hard with a major landslide that buried more than a dozen residents and destroyed bridges and homes. The consequences of this disaster will be felt for years by some and for a lifetime by others. Angangueo will never be the same – the one we remember before the flooding is gone.

The monarch colonies were also strongly impacted by the rainfall but the monarch population will recover – how long this recovery will take is a question that can’t be answered at this time.

Journey North Relief Effort

Journey North has stepped forward to coordinate relief efforts for the people displaced by the destruction in Angangueo and Ocampo. You can visit the Journey North site to see their response to conditions in Mexico. The key paragraph is as follows:

“Send Financial Support:? Journey North is coordinating a drive to send financial support to local, community-based, non-profit organizations who work in the monarch region. If you would like to support the work of these organizations, please send a check to:

Journey North
?P.O. Box 263
Norwich, VT 05055

Your contributions will be forwarded to organizations who are experienced in sustainable development projects and can work strategically and efficiently in the local communities.”

News from El Rosario

The infrastructure at El Rosario was badly damaged. A landslide in this area is reported to have killed 13 people. Many roads and bridges in the area were destroyed in the floods. Crews are working long hours to restore the road to the community and the monarch sanctuary. There are many rumors about the conditions of the community and the monarch colony but reliable information is lacking.

Public Access to Monarch Sanctuaries

As of this writing (17 February) the following monarch sanctuaries are open to the public: Sierra Chincua (access available only from the north and not from Angangueo), Cerro Pelon, and Herrada (the size of the surviving colony is small). El Rosario is not open at this time.

Additional information concerning this devastating event will be posted shortly.

Monarch Population Status

Each December Eduardo Rendón from the World Wildlife Fund Mexico and a team of biologists search for and measure each monarch overwintering colony – those within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) and those outside this area as well. Eduardo has kindly forwarded the report based on their findings and the commentary that follows is based on this summary. The report (in Spanish) can be found on the WWF Mexico site.

E. Rendón Salinas, C. A. Valera-Bermejo, S. Rodríguez-Mejía, Y F. Martínez-Meza. Monitoreo de las colonias de hibernación de la mariposa Monarca: superficie forestal de ocupación en diciembre de 2009. WWF y Reserva de la Biosfera Mariposa Monarca. 8 pp.

The news is not good.

Only 7 colonies were found and the total area occupied by monarchs at the overwintering sites in December was 1.92 hectares (ha). The three largest colonies (El Capulin (Cerro Pelon) at 0.53ha, El Rosario at 0.50ha, and Cerro Prieto (Chincua) at 0.47ha) constitute 78% of the total area. The totals for both hectares and numbers of colonies are at an all-time low. Good records of the numbers of colonies and area occupied go back to 1992 and there is less complete data for most years going back to the late 1970s. The numbers this year appear to be lower than observed for any year since the overwintering colonies became known to science in 1975. The lowest previous total, 2.19 hectares, was reported in 2004. This decline continues a trend that started in the late 1990s. In the decade of the 90s the mean area occupied by monarch colonies was close to 9 hectares. The mean for the last 10 years, through the 2009 migration, is now below 5 hectares per year; the three lowest monarch overwintering populations were reported in this decade.

In the Monarch Population Status posting to the Monarch Watch Blog on the 20th of October I summarized the conditions monarchs confronted during the breeding season and predicted that: “the total hectares will be in the range of 2 to 3.5 when all colonies are measured in December.” More recently, based on the relative success of taggers this fall, I was anticipating that the total hectares would be closer to 3 hectares. Unfortunately, the final number is below my most pessimistic expectation.

As many of you know my predictions are based on a combination of interpretations of the effects of temperature on monarch populations, observations reported to us throughout the breeding season and early in the migration and my 18 years of experience in following the fall migration closely. Of these, temperatures are the best predictor.

Without going into great detail and wishing not to repeat the October report, here is a brief summary of the reasons for the low overwintering numbers for the winter of 2009-2010.

1.) High temperatures in Texas in March and early April limited production of first generation monarchs. It is these monarchs that recolonize the northern breeding range and fewer monarchs moving north/northeast out of Texas from late April to June impacts the rest of the breeding season.

2.) Conditions were less than ideal for the first generation monarchs as they moved north in May and early June.

3.) Upon arrival in Minnesota, monarchs encountered drought conditions that limited reproductive success of first generation in that area.

4.) As the summer progressed, cool and cool, rainy conditions prevailed in many areas, limiting reproduction and slowing development of larvae.

5.) Colder than normal conditions prevailed for most of the western two-thirds of the northern breeding area from mid June into early September.

In many respects, the conditions during the monarch breeding season in 2009 were a repeat of the conditions seen in 2004 that contributed to the previous low overwintering population number of 2.19 hectares.

In spite of the recent cold snap that reached into Mexico, there have been no indications of weather-related mortality at the overwintering sites. Let’s hope that normal winter conditions prevail during the next 7-8 weeks. Even if there should be some mortality this winter, our experience with the disaster of 2002, in which an estimated 80% of the population died as the result of a January storm, suggests that the monarchs can recover. The number of monarchs surviving is critical. IF at least 1 hectare of monarchs survives to move north and IF they encounter normal conditions as they move north through Mexico and Texas, the population can rebound in one breeding season.

Monarchs in Space

Last month we launched our Monarchs in Space project and as many of you know, it came together in a very short time. We began working with BioServe Space Technologies at the University of Colorado in April – they were interested in determining if it was possible to send monarchs into space. We provided them with caterpillars and various versions of our constantly evolving artificial diet over the months and in mid October they informed us that they wanted monarch caterpillars to send to the International Space Station on the shuttle Atlantis due to launch on the 16th of November. Wow – this didn’t give us much time!

We immediately thought of getting schools involved in this unique educational opportunity, but due to numerous meetings and other commitments we weren’t able to really focus on this possibility until late October. Early in November, BioServe said they could provide rearing chambers to 20 schools if we could come up with the names and addresses of those willing to participate. Late in the afternoon of the 4th of November, we sent an message out to our email subscriber list asking for willing participants and posted our request in a blog entry as well. We had over 200 responses in the first 2 hours and nearly 900 responses by the deadline two days later. We had an interesting problem – there were too many people interested in these kits!

Several questions had to be answered. Could we come up with an alternate plan? Could we instruct people how to make their own monarch habitats? Could we produce enough caterpillars of the right age to ship to participants in time for the shuttle launch? We struggled with these issues, but eventually came up with “Monarchs in Space, Plan B” and announced this alternative late on Friday the 6th – just 10 days before the scheduled shuttle launch. As the responses rolled in we sprang into action, making diet, isolating caterpillars, assembling supplies, preparing instructions, and processing orders. We called in all of our students and volunteers and asked friends and family for help as well. The next six days were hectic and involved long hours, but on the 11th and 12th we managed to ship out 425 packages containing 570 kits and distribute another 30 kits locally.

The project has now come to a close and we have asked participants to help us evaluate this program via a brief online survey so that we can improve the kits and instructions as we develop new projects for 2010 and beyond. We know we missed a few things. In retrospect, we should have realized that this time of year many classrooms are cold relative to what monarchs need and that many would find it difficult to maintain the habitats at the recommended 75F to match the conditions on the International Space Station. We also should have provided more guidance on how to use the diet – sparingly at first and then added as needed by the growing caterpillars.

Overall, the Monarchs in Space project has been a great success. The results of the project, including those of the survey will be posted on the Monarchs in Space page soon. If you haven’t checked it out yet, please do so – we’ve posted lots of photos, videos, and links you may enjoy.

Monarchs in Space – Classrooms Wanted!

WANTED: Schools and individuals (located in the U.S., east of the Rocky Mountains) to follow the development of monarchs on the International Space Station.

We need to have you commit to this program by 5PM central on Friday afternoon (November 6th) – sorry for the short notice!

BACKGROUND
The next Space Shuttle launch is scheduled for November 16th (Mission STS-129). Atlantis will carry three 4th instar monarch caterpillars to the International Space Station (ISS) in a small rearing chamber. This chamber will be placed in an incubator aboard the ISS where the developing monarchs will be monitored. Still and video cameras will continually capture images, which will be made available online.

We have prepared a text that outlines normal development of monarchs from the fourth instar until emergence as adults. This detailed text is written for adults and contains an extensive glossary. It is intended to provide the information teachers need to answer student questions and as a guide to the five major challenges monarchs face in the nearly weightless environment of the International Space Station.

PARTICIPATION
If you would like your school or classroom to participate, please contact us at monarch@ku.edu before 5PM central this Friday (November 6th).

Monarch Watch will send a special monarch larva kit containing six 3rd instar caterpillars and artificial diet to participating schools. The monarch kit costs $17.95 and the overnight shipping will be an additional $26 for a total of $43.95. We will also provide instructions for creating a simple rearing chamber that will approximate the conditions of the chamber that will be transported to the ISS – microgravity not included 🙂

If you participate in this program you will be able to follow the shuttle mission to the space station and the development of the monarchs in space for at least two weeks.

Background materials, additional instructions, and relevant links will be available via our website – stay tuned to our blog for details.

If you have any questions, please let us know!

Monarch Population Status

Remember “Goldilocks and the Three Bears”? It’s a great story for kids and I’ve started to use the essence of the story to explain the ups and downs of monarch numbers. This metaphorical usage all started when I was talking to a reporter a few years ago who did not seem to understand my long-winded explanations of why the monarch population in New England was proclaimed to be the largest seen in 30-40 years by many local experts. In frustration I said something like “Remember the story of the Three Bears…one bowl of porridge was too hot, one was too cold, and one was just right?” She got it and didn’t seem to be offended. In fact, she printed it! Thus was born “The Three Bears Theory of Ecology,” the core of which is based on the well-established principle that all organisms (and enzymatic reactions for that matter) operate on a curve – a temperature curve such that it can be too cold or too hot (to the point of death at both extremes) and just right in the middle. This year it was much too cold for good monarch reproduction in most of the monarch’s northern summer breeding areas. But, it was also too hot, too dry, and too wet. It’s all very complicated but I’ll try to put it all together as best I can.

Let’s start with the 2008/2009 overwintering population. The area occupied by monarchs at all the overwintering sites measured about 5.5 hectares – a modest population just a bit lower than the mean of 6 hectares for this decade. The butterflies wintered well, aside from some excessive mortality at Cerro Pelon, a colony that insists on forming at a badly cut over site. I spent four days from 7AM to 7PM working with a Disney film crew at El Rosario in early March and was impressed by two things: the low number of dead monarchs beneath the colony and the excellent condition of the butterflies for so late in the season. The monarchs were already on the move northward at this time and it seemed likely they would arrive in Texas in good condition and high numbers; however, the drought in Texas and the higher than normal temperatures in March and early April were not welcoming. These conditions took their toll on the arriving monarchs. The butterflies are 6-8 months old when they arrive in March and these are the kinds of conditions that reduce lifespan, egg laying, and therefore what ecologists refer to as “realized fecundity.” So, Texas in March was beyond optimum and therefore on the right side of the curve.

Because of these conditions, the numbers of first generation monarchs heading northwards from late April through the first two weeks of June was modest if not lower than normal. Unfortunately, this wave of butterflies moving northward encountered long periods of unfavorable weather. Further, those reaching parts of the East North Central climatic region (IA, MN, WI, MI), particularly Minnesota, encountered an unusual spring drought. Droughts sometimes reduce realized fecundity, especially if the effect is to reduce nectar availability and the availability of host plants, and this may have been the case in Minnesota in late May and early June.

The overall result for the first generation moving into the summer breeding range was that they got there late and the numbers arriving were low – then came the cold and wet weather. Cold and wet, other extremes, also reduce realized fecundity. Egg laying is restricted when it is too cold or raining and eggs deferred are seldom compensated for by more egg laying when conditions improve.

The summer breeding area for the monarchs consists of three climatic regions, the East North Central, Central, and North East (and there is the monarch production area in Ontario with weather that is usually midway between the East North Central and the North East). The summer temperatures (June-August) were colder than normal in all three regions. Precipitation was a bit lower than normal for the East North Central region but was above normal in both the Central and North East. Above normal precipitation isn’t necessarily bad but long rainy periods that reduce egg laying can reduce realized fecundity as I mentioned above.

The underlying reason for the cold summer was once again the position of the jet stream, which uncharacteristically settled over the middle part of the continent for most of the summer, just as it did in 2004. The poor monarch production in the cold summer of 2004 – a mere 2.19 hectares, the lowest population ever recorded in Mexico – prompted me to brush up on my meager knowledge of climates and causes of extremes resulting in my attempt to educate others about what I had learned (see “Teaching with Monarchs” from a January 2005 update). Will we see a low population in Mexico this winter? Yes, and my guess is that the total hectares will be in the range of 2 to 3.5 when all colonies are measured in December.

So, how cold was it in the summer of 2009? The total number of monarch degree days (in F) is shown for selected cities in the mid portion of the continent from 2003 through 2009 in Table 1. Note that for most cities the number of monarch degree days was about the same in 2004 and 2009.

Table 1. Monarch degree days (in F) for selected mid-continental cites from Dallas in the south to the limit of milkweeds and monarch reproduction in Winnipeg.*

*Thanks to Janis Lentz for patiently calculating the monarch degree days.

The most recent previous cold summer was in 1992, the summer during which the dust veil from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines cooled the entire planet. Having a cold summer is one thing, but where it is cold and how extreme the cold was is another. It seems reasonable from all we know about monarch summer production that the greatest monarch production area is in the East North Central climatic region. The mean summer temperatures for this region from 1895-2009 are shown in Figure 1. A glance at the right of the figure shows the three cold summers mentioned above but if you look closely, you will see that you have to go back to 1928 to find a summer as cold as 2009 (aside from 1992 and 2004).

So, let’s revisit the Three Bears Theory of Ecology and that temperature curve. Aside from the winter conditions, which seemed to be optimal, the monarch population appears to have been either to the left or right of the most favorable temperature and precipitation conditions since leaving the overwintering colonies beginning in late February. On the bright side, the drought has eased in Texas and there is an abundance of flowers to sustain the monarchs as they pass through to Mexico.

Figure 1. Mean summer (June – August) temperatures for the East North Central climatic region from 1895-2009.

Birthday Surprise – Thank You!

As some of you may know, I took an extended vacation in Alaska this summer. While there I kept in touch with my crew, Jim Lovett and Ann Ryan, and though I kept up with some email communications, I let quite a bit slide and didn’t really keep up with Dplex-L (our email discussion list), our blog, our Facebook page, etc. My priorities were catching a few fish, staying away from the bears or any mother moose with babies, and kicking back. It had been a stressful spring with lots of worries about the possible demise of Monarch Watch due to the economic downturn and I was really worn down. I needed to get away from my 7-day-a-week routine and for me Alaska with its beauty and salmon-filled rivers is the place to do it.

All was going well – like the old Billie Holiday tune “Summertime, and the livin’ is easy/Fish are jumpin’…” – until I received a rather cryptic email from Jim on August 1st with the subject “Important Note from Jim & Ann”:

Chip: If you happen to see or hear something that you shouldn’t see or hear (you’ll know when you see or hear it), it would be best to play it as if you didn’t see or hear it. See what we’re saying here?

Thank you.
The Management

Boy, talk about a curious message. Wow!

Clearly, The Management was up to something but I didn’t know what. But, I really didn’t need a lot incentive to ignore emails and this message seemed to suggest I should pay even less attention than I had been to Dplex, etc. Eventually it became clear that some sort of fundraising effort was going on in the background but I didn’t know the details. It was also apparent that it had something to do with my birthday. That’s all I knew.

Fast forward to the end of August. Friday morning, my birthday, was normal in the lab and all the students and Jim & Ann were busy with the usual projects. However, I knew something was up when I returned from lunch to find the main room in the lab cleaned up a bit. Still nothing happened until Ann poked her head in my office at 4:15 and asked:

“What are you doing for the next 45 minutes?” “Answering emails I guess” was my response. “Good” said Ann. “Stay in your office. You can’t come out until we come and get you.” “Ok”, I said meekly.

So, I got busy with the unending stream of emails and waited for the knock on the door – which came nearly an hour later.

I walked out of my office and into a party – a surprise birthday party attended by many of my friends and local Monarch Watch supporters as well as Jim and Ann and the “Critter Crew” – our student support staff. Outstanding! There were lots of folks and great food in abundance! Jim set up a camera and the party was streamed live – I hope many of you got to see it. Jim also arranged for various people to connect with the party live via SKYPE video. The first to connect was my daughter Wendy and her two children, Jackson and Reesey, both of whom extended wonderful birthday greetings. We also connected with Carole Jordan, Jim Gagnon, and Janis Lentz – all long-time monarch supporters and with Paty Betancourt and her students from Piedras Negras (across the border in Mexico from Eagle Pass). Paty and her students, accompanied by a student in the ecology club on the guitar, sang “Las Mañanitas” (a traditional Mexican birthday song) to me. It was a great surprise and delight.

At some point candles were lit on a cake and I blew them out but I’m not sure whether this was before or after the biggest surprise of all. With some ceremony and finally with an explanation of what he and Ann had been up to with the “Chip in for Monarch Watch” campaign, Jim presented me with one of those big, sweepstakes-sized checks for over $15,000 – amazing!

I had expected a modest fundraising effort and outcome but I was floored by this amount. Jim told me there were over 300 contributors – 300 “Friends of Monarch Watch” who felt that what we did was worthwhile and worthy of their support. At this point I was doing my best to keep from getting choked up and I still am. The comments many of you made about how Monarch Watch has helped you connect with monarchs, plants, pollinators, and the community of great people who share your interest in monarchs has touched me deeply. I greatly appreciate your support and thoughtfulness – and your extraordinary commitment to monarch conservation.

If you haven’t yet, I encourage you to spend a little time reading through the comments and browsing the photos at monarchwatch.org/chip

I want to thank all of you who have contributed to this fund. With this support we will keep Monarch Watch going. It is gratifying to know that there are other people out there who care – no only about monarchs but about all in the world that sustains us. You are great, all of you – thank you, thank you.

My special thanks to Jim Lovett and Ann Ryan, who made all this happen, to Ina Warren for her useful suggestions and frequent nudges, and to everyone that brought food and drink to the party – Jackie, Dale, Rosemary, Larry, Margarete, Mary, Alicia, Ann, Sarah, and Emily.

[ NOTE FROM JIM: We’ve had a tremendous response to this campaign and continue to receive contributions and comments – the connections that are facilitated by monarchs and Monarch Watch are extraordinary – so we have extended it through the end of September to make sure everyone that wants to participate has the opportunity. If you have any questions about this please let me know. ]

Wanted: Gerber Baby Food Containers

Do you or someone you know use Gerber’s “2nd Foods” Baby Food packs – the larger, 3.5-ounce containers? Here’s what they look like on the shelf at your grocery store and removed from the package:

If you have access to a supply of these empty containers, consider sending them to us (please rinse them first!) for reuse as monarch rearing chambers:

I don’t think Gerber had monarchs in mind when they introduced these containers, but they work quite well and save us a lot of time compared to other methods we’ve used.

We raise thousands of caterpillars each year so we can use a TON of these – please start saving these empty containers and lids for Monarch Watch and once you have a number of them (shouldn’t take long!) please contact us at monarch@ku.edu for mailing/shipping instructions. If you can coordinate a collection from several sources to send in a single package, all the better. Thank You!

Reduce, Reuse, Recycle.

ADDENDUM: It seems lots of folks are curious as to the mystery substance in the containers with the larvae (in addition to the frass). It is, indeed, an artificial diet of our own design. Since Monarch Watch was founded back in 1992, we have shipped hundreds of thousands of caterpillars on an artificial diet to schools an individuals as a part of our Monarch Rearing Kits. Our diet is not available at this time, but may be in the future – stay tuned!