Where are they now?

The migration is right on schedule. At this writing (9 October) there appear to be monarchs in good numbers in a broad band from southern Oklahoma to the Mexican border. High concentrations of monarchs have been seen in the vicinity of Eagle Pass, Texas – poised to enter Mexico. The peak of the border crossing should occur from 15-18 October if the weather is normal. Smaller numbers of monarchs should continue to cross into Mexico along the Eagle Pass / Del Rio corridor until the 29th of the month at about the time that the first of the fall migrants arrive at the overwintering sites.

The migration along the east coast seems to be about the 4th largest in the last 10 years. This portion of the population is moving more slowly, peaking last week in Cape May, New Jersey. The portion of these butterflies that move inland and head to Mexico rather than to Florida should result in a modestly large migration along the Gulf coast from Alabama to Texas in the next two weeks.

Keep watching those monarchs!

Local Tagging Event a success!

Monarch Watch and the Jayhawk Audubon Society (JAS) sponsored a morning of tagging at the Baker Wetlands (Lawrence, KS) on Saturday, September 16th. In 5 hours more than 300 people helped tag over 3000 butterflies. Cool temperatures kept the butterflies relatively inactive and easy to catch. One group of students from Olathe East High School tagged 400 butterflies within 30 minutes. Considering that at last year’s event only 300 Monarchs were tagged, everyone at Monarch Watch and JAS would say that this year’s effort was an overwhelming success.

If you sponsor or participate in a local tagging event, we’d love to hear about it so please feel free to drop us a line anytime!

The Great Recovery of 2001

Last year was a disaster for monarchs. The spring, summer, and fall droughts in different portions of the country limited reproduction in the spring and summer and survival of the migrating population in the fall. The result was the lowest overwintering population in Mexico recorded to date – only 28.3 million monarchs. Late in the winter (early March) severe storms added significantly to the usual mortality of the overwintering butterflies. Worried about the coming year I ran a few calculations and estimated that as few as 4.9 million females survived to lay eggs in the southern states in March and April. I had a hard time envisioning how the population could recover; however, they did and the overwintering population this year could be 80-100 million butterflies.

How did they recover? The explanation appears to be weather extremes and fire ants. Severe droughts not only affect monarchs but all other insects that feed on soft bodied insects – such as predatory and parasitic wasps, and fire ants. In most instances, populations of predators and parasites decline even further than those of their prey – and recover more slowly. The droughts in Texas were followed by heavy fall rains, rain throughout the winter, and even good spring rains. The result was a lush spring in Texas and one with relatively few predators and parasites. Monarchs and numerous other butterflies that migrate out of Texas in the spring produced enormous numbers of offspring which migrated into the midwest in May and June. The numbers of monarchs were sufficient to recolonize nearly all of the breeding area even up to 50 degrees N (Winnipeg) and reproduction was normal to above normal in most of the breeding areas throughout the summer.

My speculation about the role of fire ants received a boost recently with the arrival of a newsletter from the fire ant research group at Texas A & M University. For months they had been fielding “Where are the fire ants”? questions from people all over Texas and Oklahoma. It appears that fire ants are down over large areas of Texas and seem to have disappeared from much of the Red River Valley in Oklahoma. They attributed the decline to the drought of 2000 and flooding that followed in the fall and winter.

Let’s hope the fire ants stay down for awhile!

Tagging Events

15 September 2001 – Baker-Haskell Wetlands, Lawrence, KS

Monarch Watch, in collaboration with the Jayhawk Audubon Society, Kansas Sierra Club, Kansas University Environmental Studies Student Association and the Lawrence Free State Biology Club, is sponsoring a monarch tagging event at the Baker-Haskell Wetlands on Saturday 15 September from 7:30 AM to 11:30 AM. Participants should use the 31st street entrance to the wetlands. Approximately 100 nets will be available but participants should bring their own if possible. Tags and instructions in how to tag will be provided. This is a great event for families. The flowers are lush and tall in the wetlands and taggers should dress accordingly. We expect large numbers of monarchs to be present. This event commemorates Monarch Watch’s tenth year.

16 September 2001 – Geauga Park District, Chardon, OH

Noon – 3:00 p.m. Woods Edge Shelter, Swine Creek Reservation

*Program starts at noon with short talk in shelter on life cycle and migration. Participants may eat their lunch during this time.

*Netting in field north of shelter from 12:30-3:00 p.m. Participants may join in at any time.

*Nets provided, OK to bring your own.

*No insect collecting for removal from park.

*Naturalist or volunteer does tagging, person who netted butterfly will have name recorded in order for us to contact in the event of a recovery of butterfly along migration route or in Mexico wintering area. If you have questions, please contact John Kolar at the Geauga Park District, 285-2222 ext 5420.

22 September 2001 – Central Park, New York, NY

Monarch Watch 2001 will be held at the Belvedere Castle in Central Park in New York city on the afternoon of Saturday, 22 September. The event will celebrate the annual monarch migration with talks on the current status of monarch populations and conservation efforts. Representatives of the Mexican government and World Wildlife Fund Mexico will be among the speakers. Entertainment will be provided and the event will conclude with the tagging and release of monarchs. This event is co-sponsored by Monarch Watch, MasterVision, the American Ethical Union Union and the New York City Parks Department.

We’re swamped!

As you may or may not know, Monarch Watch is right smack in the middle of its busiest season. Each day last week we received at least 50 phone messages, 30 faxes, 60 pieces of mail, and 80 email messages. On top of that, in order to ship nearly 8,000 monarch caterpillars the “office staff” had to lend a helping hand to the Critter Crew. As a result, we’re running a little behind on our correspondence so please understand if we don’t get right back to you 😉

Why only 250,000 tags?

Several members have asked why we only distribute 250, 000 tags each year since the demand for tags seems to exceed this number. The short answer is economics – the tagging program costs at least $60, 000 to run each year and we only recover half this amount from memberships, extra tags, etc. If we increase the number of tags, we lose more money. In other words, the tagging program is not self supporting and to pay for this program we have to sell educational and promotional items and solicit contributions from our members. Monarch Watch is not financially supported by the University, federal grants, foundations or corporations and we only receive $2,000 per year from the state of Kansas. At the beginning of the year we were NEGATIVE $32,000 and we are still recovering from this deficit. Even though the demand for tags might be higher this year (and the years to follow), we simply cannot take on additional costs until our financial situation stabilizes.

Migration Forecast

The leading edge of the migration is expected to progress southward from approximately 39 degrees N on the 10th to 36:50 on the 17th. The migration is expected to peak approximately 10 days after the arrival of the front at each latitude. Of course, these are just predictions based on long term trends and they don’t incorporate the proximate weather conditions and the predictions themselves may need to be refined as additional data becomes available. In fact, the butterflies may be a day or two ahead of these predictions in Kansas and Missouri at this time. In order to help us track the migration and test the basic theory of the migration, please report what you see in your area via the digital Monarch Watch mapping site on KanCRN. Alternatively, you can send your observations to us via email at monarch@ku.edu. Thank you!

Price Increases

Due to the lack of substantial funding and the fact that our overnight shipping costs have nearly tripled without warning we are forced to increase the prices of our educational and promotional items. 🙁 The new pricing will take effect immediately (as soon as we settle on the increase); however, we will continue to accept 2001 order forms through the end of the year. We should have more information for you next month.

Monarch Watch Funding

We don’t want to sound like a broken record, but with all of the new subscribers to this Update List we really need to keep publishing this message. We know there are sources of funding out there and hope that someone receiving this update will “know someone who knows someone” that will be able to match us up with the funding that we need to continue our mission of education, conservation and research.

As many of you now know, Monarch Watch continues to be financially challenged. We are just scraping by and are still searching for corporate or foundation support. Due to a shortfall in income we are attempting to enlarge our base of support through collaborative arrangements with other organizations. Any leads for potential sources of funding you can provide will be greatly appreciated!

2001 Tagging Kits: Going, going…

We are currently shipping the 2001 Tagging Kits and the tags are going fast! We have already received orders for 190,000 of the 250,000 tags available this year. In order to accommodate everyone that wants to participate in the tagging program this fall, we will begin limiting the number of tags per order to 25 – this would consist of a Tagging Membership or Tagging Kit; additional sets of tags will no longer be available.

Why only 250,000 tags? Given our current financial situation (and in turn, our limited staff) we simply do not have the resources to process a larger number of tags at this time.

If you haven’t ordered your tags yet, head on over to www.MonarchWatch.org/order and get them today!