Late Migrants and Population Size

Although there have been killing frosts over much of the northern portion of the breeding range, late monarchs have been reported with some regularity over the past two weeks and, as recently as yesterday (1 November), two monarchs were spotted headed in southerly directions in eastern Kansas. In spite of these reports, it appears that the movement of the main portion of the migration through eastern Kansas occurred over a shorter interval than in most years. This year the migration reached Lawrence, KS on 9 September and nearly all of the monarchs disappeared from the region around the 30th. We can usually count on being able to collect up to 30 monarchs per hour through 8 October but this was not the case this year when only a few monarchs could be found during the first week of October.

Based on all the reports received for the fall season and on the surveys such as that conducted by Dick Walton at Cape May, New Jersey, we’re still predicting that the monarch overwintering population will contain 80-100 million monarchs, a substantial improvement over the 28.3 million recorded last winter.

Where Are They Now?

The leading edge of the migration seems to have arrived near the overwintering sites in Mexico a bit early this year. Reports on Dplex-L, the email list we maintain for those wishing to post reports on monarchs, indicated that monarchs had arrived at 20 degrees north, only half a degree north of the overwintering sites, by the 22nd of October. By the 27th, large numbers of monarchs were observed by Dave Kust below the colony sites near Angangueo, Michoacan. (Angangueo is an old mining town located between the two major overwintering sites, El Rosario and Chincua.)

The local folklore is that monarchs arrive every year coincident with the Day of the Dead (today, 2 November). In fact, they usually arrive a day or three early. However, there are no long-term records or even adequate definitions and descriptions of what the local people observe when the monarchs “arrive”. Arrivals at the overwintering sites should peak in mid-November but monarchs should continue to arrive at the overwintering sites through the at least the first week of December.

Send Us Your Data

Please send us your datasheets as soon as you complete them. We use the data from the tagging to estimate the size and mortality of the fall monarch population as well as to determine the migration history of every monarch recovered in Mexico or recovered along the migration path. Without your datasheets these tasks become even more difficult and time consuming. Please make copies of your data (just in case!) and send them to us as soon as possible. Thank you for your help!

Tag Recovery Fund

Due to the abundance of monarchs this fall, we anticipate several hundred and possibly even 1,000 monarch tags will be available for purchase in Mexico this winter. Currently, the fund’s balance is $2500.00 which will allow the purchase of 500 tags. If you would like to contribute to this fund, please visit www.MonarchWatch.org/donate

Thank you!

Adopt-a-Classroom

So far this year, we have received $7,800.00 specifically for the Adopt-a-Classroom program. However, this is only about half of what program costs annually. If we cannot meet our goal of $14,000 for this trip, the remaining expenses will have to be paid from our operating budget, as we have done in the past.

We are currently working with many school districts in Texas to get workbooks and textbooks in Spanish. In addition to the many supplies donated by our members, we recently acquired 120 new solar calculators and a few used typewriters. Also on our list of items to take are overhead projectors with transparencies and musical instruments. If you know of a good source for any of these items or have any other ideas, please let us know.

Where are they now?

The migration is right on schedule. At this writing (9 October) there appear to be monarchs in good numbers in a broad band from southern Oklahoma to the Mexican border. High concentrations of monarchs have been seen in the vicinity of Eagle Pass, Texas – poised to enter Mexico. The peak of the border crossing should occur from 15-18 October if the weather is normal. Smaller numbers of monarchs should continue to cross into Mexico along the Eagle Pass / Del Rio corridor until the 29th of the month at about the time that the first of the fall migrants arrive at the overwintering sites.

The migration along the east coast seems to be about the 4th largest in the last 10 years. This portion of the population is moving more slowly, peaking last week in Cape May, New Jersey. The portion of these butterflies that move inland and head to Mexico rather than to Florida should result in a modestly large migration along the Gulf coast from Alabama to Texas in the next two weeks.

Keep watching those monarchs!

Local Tagging Event a success!

Monarch Watch and the Jayhawk Audubon Society (JAS) sponsored a morning of tagging at the Baker Wetlands (Lawrence, KS) on Saturday, September 16th. In 5 hours more than 300 people helped tag over 3000 butterflies. Cool temperatures kept the butterflies relatively inactive and easy to catch. One group of students from Olathe East High School tagged 400 butterflies within 30 minutes. Considering that at last year’s event only 300 Monarchs were tagged, everyone at Monarch Watch and JAS would say that this year’s effort was an overwhelming success.

If you sponsor or participate in a local tagging event, we’d love to hear about it so please feel free to drop us a line anytime!

The Great Recovery of 2001

Last year was a disaster for monarchs. The spring, summer, and fall droughts in different portions of the country limited reproduction in the spring and summer and survival of the migrating population in the fall. The result was the lowest overwintering population in Mexico recorded to date – only 28.3 million monarchs. Late in the winter (early March) severe storms added significantly to the usual mortality of the overwintering butterflies. Worried about the coming year I ran a few calculations and estimated that as few as 4.9 million females survived to lay eggs in the southern states in March and April. I had a hard time envisioning how the population could recover; however, they did and the overwintering population this year could be 80-100 million butterflies.

How did they recover? The explanation appears to be weather extremes and fire ants. Severe droughts not only affect monarchs but all other insects that feed on soft bodied insects – such as predatory and parasitic wasps, and fire ants. In most instances, populations of predators and parasites decline even further than those of their prey – and recover more slowly. The droughts in Texas were followed by heavy fall rains, rain throughout the winter, and even good spring rains. The result was a lush spring in Texas and one with relatively few predators and parasites. Monarchs and numerous other butterflies that migrate out of Texas in the spring produced enormous numbers of offspring which migrated into the midwest in May and June. The numbers of monarchs were sufficient to recolonize nearly all of the breeding area even up to 50 degrees N (Winnipeg) and reproduction was normal to above normal in most of the breeding areas throughout the summer.

My speculation about the role of fire ants received a boost recently with the arrival of a newsletter from the fire ant research group at Texas A & M University. For months they had been fielding “Where are the fire ants”? questions from people all over Texas and Oklahoma. It appears that fire ants are down over large areas of Texas and seem to have disappeared from much of the Red River Valley in Oklahoma. They attributed the decline to the drought of 2000 and flooding that followed in the fall and winter.

Let’s hope the fire ants stay down for awhile!

Tagging Events

15 September 2001 – Baker-Haskell Wetlands, Lawrence, KS

Monarch Watch, in collaboration with the Jayhawk Audubon Society, Kansas Sierra Club, Kansas University Environmental Studies Student Association and the Lawrence Free State Biology Club, is sponsoring a monarch tagging event at the Baker-Haskell Wetlands on Saturday 15 September from 7:30 AM to 11:30 AM. Participants should use the 31st street entrance to the wetlands. Approximately 100 nets will be available but participants should bring their own if possible. Tags and instructions in how to tag will be provided. This is a great event for families. The flowers are lush and tall in the wetlands and taggers should dress accordingly. We expect large numbers of monarchs to be present. This event commemorates Monarch Watch’s tenth year.

16 September 2001 – Geauga Park District, Chardon, OH

Noon – 3:00 p.m. Woods Edge Shelter, Swine Creek Reservation

*Program starts at noon with short talk in shelter on life cycle and migration. Participants may eat their lunch during this time.

*Netting in field north of shelter from 12:30-3:00 p.m. Participants may join in at any time.

*Nets provided, OK to bring your own.

*No insect collecting for removal from park.

*Naturalist or volunteer does tagging, person who netted butterfly will have name recorded in order for us to contact in the event of a recovery of butterfly along migration route or in Mexico wintering area. If you have questions, please contact John Kolar at the Geauga Park District, 285-2222 ext 5420.

22 September 2001 – Central Park, New York, NY

Monarch Watch 2001 will be held at the Belvedere Castle in Central Park in New York city on the afternoon of Saturday, 22 September. The event will celebrate the annual monarch migration with talks on the current status of monarch populations and conservation efforts. Representatives of the Mexican government and World Wildlife Fund Mexico will be among the speakers. Entertainment will be provided and the event will conclude with the tagging and release of monarchs. This event is co-sponsored by Monarch Watch, MasterVision, the American Ethical Union Union and the New York City Parks Department.

We’re swamped!

As you may or may not know, Monarch Watch is right smack in the middle of its busiest season. Each day last week we received at least 50 phone messages, 30 faxes, 60 pieces of mail, and 80 email messages. On top of that, in order to ship nearly 8,000 monarch caterpillars the “office staff” had to lend a helping hand to the Critter Crew. As a result, we’re running a little behind on our correspondence so please understand if we don’t get right back to you 😉