Garden Show A Success

Whew – that was a long work weekend! Monarch Watch put in over 100 hours at the recent Metropolitan Lawn & Garden Show in Kansas City.

Our 10′ x 30′ booth contained a cage full of monarchs, milkweeds loaded with caterpillars and pupae, a plant a seedling activity, video & slideshow of the overwintering sites in Mexico, lots of Monarch Waystation info, and a mini “Monarch Watch Shop” where a few promotional and educational items were sold in support of our program.

Attendees got a first look at the new t-shirts that will be available via the Monarch Watch Shop soon:

Chip took the stage to give a couple of talks about creating habitats for butterflies and other pollinators:

I don’t know if every single one of the expected 30,000 visitors stopped by to see us but we definitely talked to a LOT of people about Monarch Watch and about creating habitats for monarchs and other wildlife. The donations collected and the few sales we made helped defray our costs of participating in the three-day event – more importantly though, we hope that we encouraged a large number of people to get involved in habitat conservation through our Monarch Waystation program (and that they get them certified!). Given the show’s proximity to Monarch Watch HQ in Lawrence, we also expect to see lots of first-time visitors to our Spring Open House and Plant Fundraiser coming up in May.

All in all I’d say this event was a success – we need to get the word out about Monarch Watch and habitat conservation; starting close to home makes sense

Metropolitan Lawn & Garden Show This Weekend

Spring’s just around the corner! The Metropolitan Lawn & Garden Show is Kansas City’s premier consumer Show dedicated to the green industry. This year’s theme is Butterfly Gardening and Monarch Watch has been invited to participate (and given complimentary booth space). We’ll have a large exhibit set up with lots of monarchs, videos, and information about our various programs, concentrating on Monarch Waystations. We’ll also be accepting donations, have t-shirts and other goodies for sale to support our program, and be giving away monarch habitat seeds, including milkweed – we’ll even have a pot-making activity where you can make your own little newspaper pots and plant seeds to take home.

Right next to us you’ll find the show’s “Butterfly Encounter” – an exhibit with live butterflies from around the world, one of the largest temporary displays ever built in the Midwest.

If you’re in the area we’d love for you to stop by the American Royal Center and see us sometime Friday through Sunday (Feb 6-8):

Friday 10a to 9p
Saturday 10a to 9p
Sunday 10a to 6p

For directions, ticket information, and other details please visit the Metropolitan Lawn & Garden Show website. See you there!

The Future of Monarch Watch

The year 2009 marks the eighteenth year of Monarch Watch. We started the program in the fall of 1992 and, given the economic conditions, I’m wondering if we will still be around next year at this time. Keeping Monarch Watch going from year to year has always been a concern yet somehow we have managed. In fact, we are one of the longest surviving educational outreach programs in existence. Most such programs have initial funding from grants, corporate benefactors, and contributions but only keep going for a year or two after the initial funding runs out. I don’t know the half-life of outreach programs that are similar to Monarch Watch, but I’d guess that it’s roughly 5-6 years. If this is the case, we have done relatively well. But, can we keep it going?

At a recent meeting, the discussion turned to the funding of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the statement was made that most NGOs are anticipating declines in revenues of 20-40% in the next year. I’ve heard similar concerns on NPR and on local radio stations as well. Monarch Watch might be able to survive a 20% drop in revenue but not 40% or even 30%. So, what is the prospect for the future? We’ve been looking at the books and it doesn’t look good. Last year our expenses exceeded our income by $18,000 – clearly, we need to increase our income and it’s really an open question as to whether we can do so.

Our 2008 income and expense breakdown is as follows:

The tagging program doesn’t pay for itself and we can’t cover all the costs associated with buying tags in Mexico, so I have been paying for most of the tags from personal funds.

Why We Need to Survive

For the last 14 years I have been advocating the creation of a cohesive plan to conserve the monarch migration, a plan that involves all three countries that host the eastern monarch population. I won’t go into the history of this advocacy, and I’m not sure it ever had any impact, but the reality is that such a plan has been developed and we now have the “North American Monarch Conservation Plan”. This is an exciting development and we want to be in a position to support this plan in the coming years. The plan was developed through an extensive set of meetings and communications involving representatives of Mexico, the United States, and Canada.

The first positive steps toward international cooperation to conserve monarchs occurred at meetings of the Trilateral Committee for Wildlife and Ecosystem Conservation and Management. These meetings, aided by the hard work of Donita Cotter and others, led to The Trilateral Monarch Butterfly Sister Protected Area (SPA) Network, a partnership of wildlife refuges and national parks in the United States and Canada, and natural protected areas in Mexico. Subsequent meetings involved monarch scientific and conservation experts and other stakeholders who met in Mission, Texas in 2006 (supported by the U.S. Forest Service) and in June 2007 in Morelia, Mexico (supported by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation of North America (CEC)). Karen Oberhauser (Monarchs in the Classroom/Monarch Lab) was the lead organizer and writer of the plan and her hard work, as well as that of Donita Cotter (USFWS) and a multitude of contributors, resulted in a plan that WILL serve as the basis for an upcoming focus on the protection, enhancement, and restoration of monarch habitats in the United States.

Announcements about developments related to this plan and monarch conservation will be forthcoming in a few months. Suffice it to say that a goal is to unite all parties interested in monarch conservation. To contribute to this encouraging development in coming years, we need to keep Monarch Watch going and to do so we will need help.

How You Can Help Monarch Watch and Monarchs

If you would like to help us continue our work on monarch conservation, here are some suggestions:

• Make a single or recurring donation online or by mail – contributions are 100% tax-deductible and many employers will match your gift.

• Register your monarch habitat with us as a Monarch Waystation, if you haven’t already done so.

• Encourage others to create habitats and register them as Monarch Waystations.

• Visit the Monarch Watch Shop to purchase educational and promotional products.

• Attend our Spring Open House and Plant Fundraiser on 9 May 2009.

• Organize fundraisers on behalf of Monarch Watch.

• Help us find a corporate sponsor.

Monarch Watch Mission and Vision Statements

We have always described Monarch Watch as an outreach program that deals with education, research, and conservation of monarchs but we are much more. We truly have a mission and vision but we have never made these views clear to the public and our participants.

Mission Statement: Monarch Watch strives to provide the public with information about the biology of monarch butterflies, their spectacular migration, and how to use monarchs to further science education in primary and secondary schools. We engage in research on monarch migration biology and monarch population dynamics to better understand how to conserve the monarch migration. We also promote protection of monarch habitats throughout North America.

Vision Statement: In recognition of the rapid loss of habitats and resources needed by monarch butterflies in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, our vision is the preservation of the monarch migration will require stewardship by the governments and private citizens of all three countries. We all must work together to create, conserve, and protect monarch habitats. Sustaining monarch habitats will have the effect of protecting vital pollinators and other wildlife.

What We Do at Monarch Watch
Annual and Ongoing Activities

Listed below is a summary of the major things we do at Monarch Watch – Jim, Ann, and I wear many hats around here and it would be impossible to list EVERYTHING we do.

• Manage the monarch butterfly tagging program
• Create educational materials based on monarchs
• Manage the Monarch Watch website
• Manage the Dplex-L email discussion list
• Manage the Monarch Watch Forums
• Provide periodic updates on monarchs via our Blog
• Distribute caterpillars and educational materials to schools
• Give general and professional talks on monarch biology (~12/yr)
• Videochat with classrooms (Q&A sessions with students) via iChat or Skype
• Respond to thousands of emails and dozens of press inquires
• Advise teachers and students on classroom and independent projects
• Summarize and publish tagging data
• Track monarch population trends and develop models to predict population size
• Host Spring and Fall Open House events for the public (400 to 1000 attendees)
• Conduct a public tagging event at Baker/Haskell Wetlands (150 to 550 participants)
• Promote Monarch Waystations to engage the public in monarch conservation
• Give tours to school groups, garden clubs, and many individuals that visit us
• Serve as a resource for numerous documentaries on monarchs

Monarch Watch Projects and Activities for 2009

Seek funds to analyze the tagging data

The tagging database is enormous, with more than one million records of tagged monarchs and close to 13,000 recoveries. We need to analyze these data and that will require funds to validate and standardize the entries. This is no small task and will require hundreds of hours. Although most of the questions we want to ask of the data, such as recovery rates for each section of the country, are clear, we anticipate that new questions will arise as answers to the first questions become apparent. The biggest challenge will be to test two major hypotheses regarding the migration, namely that it is driven by weather or is coincident with celestial changes. Gathering the weather records for the United States for each migration over the last 17 years will also take lots of hours. We anticipate that this project will cost 40-50,000 dollars.

Blog – more frequent entries

We got off to a great start with the Blog in early 2008 but got away from this task as the season progressed. We are going to post entries more frequently in 2009. You can expect to read much more about monarch conservation this year – things will be happening.

Reorganize the website

We have so much on our website that I’ve forgotten much of it. But, more importantly, I can’t find ancient texts when I do remember them. So, we have to find a student or intern who can take the time to go through old texts and organize them so that the information is more accessible to all.

Continue research on monarch population dynamics

We are making progress on an analysis of the relationship of climate to the numbers of monarchs reported at the overwintering sites and other locations. Stay tuned – the results will surprise you.

Promote phenology project more effectively

Last year we encouraged you to start tracking the phenology of the milkweeds in your gardens or familiar monarch habitats. For various reasons this project got off to a slow start. We are going to try again this year so watch the Blog for more information.

Promote Monarch Waystations with the goal of registering more than 1,000 new Waystations in 2009

The Monarch Waystation message requires constant promotion. We need to engage more gardeners, schools, nature centers, botanical gardens, property owners, municipalities, businesses, homeowners associations, zoos, and others to create Monarch Waystations. Given that we are losing 6,000 acres per day due to development, monarchs need all the help they can get. Please help us get this message to others.

Develop and implement a closed breeding system to control disease in monarch cultures

This project has been a long term goal; we are not there yet but we are getting closer.

Continue the tagging program for the 18th year

Tags may now be ordered via the Monarch Watch Shop for distribution in July/August – in plenty of time for the migration in your area.

Assist with and promote the North American Monarch Conservation Plan

We will have a lot more to say about this plan soon.

On TV: The Incredible Journey of the Butterflies

From time to time the monarch migration and associated conservation issues are covered in the national media, via articles in newspapers, magazines, and short clips on TV news programs. Overall, the coverage of the monarch story has been spotty bits and pieces, and Americans have not been exposed to an in-depth treatment of the amazing monarch migration, nor the people and cultures that encounter monarchs on their yearly north and south passage across the continent. This is about to change. NOVA’s “The Incredible Journey of the Butterflies“ will be aired on PBS at 8PM (check local listings) Tuesday, 27 January 2009.

This program is an edited version of “Four Wings and a Prayer” – a Canadian/French film production based loosely on the fine book of the same name by Sue Halpern (get your copy of Four Wings and a Prayer at the Monarch Watch Shop). In the book, published in 2001, Sue Halpern recounts following the fall monarch migration to Mexico. As part of the story she spoke with scientists, butterfly specialists, and others who have a passionate attachment to monarch butterflies. The wonders and mysteries of the monarch migration are told in Sue’s words and in the words of those she interviewed. It is a fascinating first person account – a combination of natural history, travel, and human interest. The movie version of Four Wings lacks the first person perspective and concentrates on telling the story of the migration. Scientists and others are interviewed along the way but the movie format doesn’t allow for an in-depth study of how people interact with monarchs. And, it shouldn’t. There is a migration story to be told, and it is told well in this production. The original Four Wings (80 mins) was edited to create a production that would fit within the NOVA format. It will be interesting to see what has been retained in the NOVA version and what was removed. There were many striking images and sequences in the original production and the shots taken of the overwintering clusters are the best I’ve seen. Several sequences, which I’m sure will be retained in the NOVA production, are vertical tracking shots that pan from the bottom to the top of trees covered with monarchs. If you ever doubted that there are as many as 25 million butterflies per acre at the overwintering sites, you won’t after you see these images. The original production was narrated by Kristin Scott-Thomas (The English Patient), however the voice in the new version is that of Stockard Channing (The West Wing). The original narration contained a few errors; the new narration was fact checked extensively and should be more accurate.

In one way or another I’ve been involved with most of the monarch video productions made over the last 14 years, but I have a personal connection to this film like no other. The Four Wings producer, Nick de Pencier, and the film crew timed their visit to Lawrence to coincide with the public tagging scheduled at the Baker-Haskell Wetlands on Saturday, 11 September 2004. The film crew arrived on Thursday afternoon and, after chatting for an hour or more in the lab, we filmed a few shots in our garden and then headed for the wetlands. The objective was to show the crew sites where monarchs often form clusters at the end of the day. Monarchs were few and there were no clusters but nice round sticks, unnoticed by me, were scattered on the ground and I slipped on one and broke my ankle. Just like that! It was off to the emergency room where I acquired a temporary cast. An operation was obviously required but couldn’t be scheduled until Monday. This situation immediately raised many questions about whether we would be able to continue the filming, especially shooting the interview. There was some pain, so drugs were required and it wasn’t clear whether I would be lucid. Nevertheless, in the spirit of “the show must go on” – and another show business adage “break a leg” which I had managed to do quite literally – the film crew took me back to the location of the accident, propped me up in a chair, and filmed the interview. I was talkative but I have no idea whether I made any sense or said too much or too little. Anyway, if any of this interview was retained in Incredible Journey, please keep in mind that I wasn’t in my right mind at the time. I think of Four Wings often – every time the weather changes, and often when descending stairs, my right ankle reminds me of that production.

There is one more note. Most of the footage for this production was obtained in the fall of 2004 and the winter of 2004-2005. As you may recall, the fall migration was the smallest we’ve recorded at Monarch Watch. The overwintering population measured by the authorities in Mexico was the lowest (2.19 hectares) since official measurement began in 1992 and lower than any of the unofficial measurements made by Lincoln Brower and his teams going back into the late 70s. In spite of the relative dearth of monarchs, the film crews were able to obtain some spectacular footage.

Though monarchs have bounced back a bit from the low in 2004, the numbers of monarchs in this decade at the overwintering sites are averaging about 60% of the numbers recorded in the 1990s. We are concerned about these lower numbers and loss of habitat certainly could be a factor. Each year in the United States we lose 2.2 million acres of habitat for wildlife to development or 8.8 million acres since the filming of Four Wings. In 2006 we initiated the Monarch Waystation Program with the objective of creating monarch habitat by planting milkweeds and nectar sources, garden-by-garden, plot-by-plot, in an attempt to offset some of this habitat loss. Our view is that we need a better effort in the United States to protect monarchs, pollinators, and all other wildlife on all private and public lands. It’s not difficult or costly to protect the wildlife we all enjoy or upon which we depend, as is the case with pollinators. If you are not familiar with the Monarch Waystation Program or the need to protect monarch habitats and how to do it, please visit – www.MonarchWatch.org/waystations/.

For more information on “The Incredible Journey of the Butterflies” please visit the program’s page on NOVA’s website, where you can view a preview and read more about the production. Again, the time of the program is 8PM (check local listings) on Tuesday, 27 January 2009. If you are a fan of American Idol or other shows in this time slot, be sure to set your VCR or DVR to record this program.

Don’t worry if you miss it on TV – we will be offering the “Incredible Journey of the Butterflies” DVD via the Monarch Watch Shop, where each purchase helps support our program. The DVD is due to be released in April.

Monarch Population Status

It is the season at Monarch Watch when the mailbox is full of tagging datasheets. Many of the datasheets are arriving with returned tags along with short notes lamenting the lack of monarchs this past fall and requests for an explanation as to why the fall 2008 monarch population was so low.

The lack of monarchs was apparent all through the season and not just in the fall. On July 18th, again at the urging of many concerned Monarch Watchers, I posed my midseason assessment of the status of the population (“Where Are The Monarchs?”). My interpretation at that time was that the conditions during the period from late April to early June, when the first generation monarchs were moving north from the breeding areas in Texas and other southern states, limited the number of monarchs reaching the summer breeding range. Specifically, I said:

May, the moving month for first generation monarchs, was cold – throughout the entire northern breeding range. It was also a period of frequent storms and heavy rains, particularly during the second half of May. Early June also saw heavy rains, especially in the east north central and central portions of the country.” Cold and rain were thought to a) limit dispersal, b) reduce egg laying, and c) increase mortality of adults resulting in a reduction of the potential fecundity of this generation. After assessing all of the factors my conclusion was that “unless you are all missing something out there, the number of reproducing adults over the next three weeks will be low, to be followed by a relatively small migratory generation.

Unfortunately, our collective observations were correct and a relatively small fall population has come to pass.

One issue that I raised in the July assessment was that the number of first generation monarchs coming out of Texas and other areas of the South might have been lower than predicted by temperatures and observations of the numbers of larvae found on milkweeds. Drought, fire ants, herbicides (especially those applied to the milkweed rich pastures in central Texas), and loss of habitat could certainly reduce the numbers of first generation monarchs. The quality and quantity of monarch habitats as well as land management practices need to be assessed for the South. Indeed, we need a national assessment of monarch/milkweed habitats throughout all breeding areas to better understand what needs to be done to conserve the monarch migration. I will be writing more on this topic in the coming months.

As the observations of the migration came in via email, Dplex-L, the Monarch Forums, and other sources, I tried to arrive at a guess as to the size of the overwintering population in Mexico. Based on previous experience it was obvious to me the overwintering population was certain to be less than five hectares. But how much less? The previous models I’ve developed were not too helpful, since we have only seen one other year (1997) when the April-May conditions seemed to limit the summer breeding population. So, I’ve just had to make a flat out guess, albeit one based on my memory of migrations over the last 16 years, and my guess is that the overwintering population will be 3-4 hectares with an expectation that the final number will be closer to the low end of this range.

An early December report in a Mexican newspaper indicated that authorities expected the overwintering population to be 4.8 hectares. However, it was not clear whether this figure reflected actual measurements of the colonies or was an estimate. As you may remember, the overwintering colonies are measured twice in December and it is the measures taken in the second half of the month that are used to calculate the final estimate for the year. Two measures of each colony are taken because many butterflies are on the move early in the month and the colonies are still in the process of consolidating. Once the colonies are well established, cooler weather tends to cause the colonies to contract and the area occupied by monarchs diminishes by 10-20%. So, the expectation of 4.8 hectares reported to Mexican newspapers could well be reduced if it was, in fact, based on early December measures of the colonies.

Tagging Datasheets – a Reminder

If you have not sent in your tagging data sheets, PLEASE DO SO NOW before these data are lost. We will be heading for Mexico later this winter to buy tags. Each year we return having bought many tags without data due to the fact that some of our participants have not returned datasheets. Although most of the money for the recovered tags comes out of my pocket, I’m most concerned about the lost data. Every recovery provides valuable information and you may never learn if the monarchs you, or your group, caught and tagged were recovered in Mexico, so please send us those datasheets! Thank you for your interest and participation in our Monarch Tagging Program.

Monarch Watch Tagging Event

Come visit us this Saturday – in person or online!

Saturday, 20 September 2008 7:30-11:30am CDT
Lawrence, KS, USA

Once again, Jayhawk Audubon Society and Monarch Watch are sponsoring Monarch butterfly tagging for the public at the Baker University Wetlands. The wetlands are located along 31st Street between Haskell and Louisiana. The event will be held from 7:30 AM until 11:30 AM on Saturday, 20 September 2008. There is no charge to participants and no experience is necessary – so bring yourself, your kids (all ages), your friends, and your neighbors! If you have a net, bring that too, though JAS and Monarch Watch will provide the tags, nets, and instructions in how to net and tag monarchs. In 2001, 325 participants tagged nearly 3,000 of the estimated 20,000 Monarchs present, and at least 85 of those tagged were recovered at the winter roost sites in Mexico! You can view all of the recoveries tagged at these events by searching for Lawrence-tagged monarchs in our searchable recovery database.

Every year, tens to hundreds of thousands of Monarchs stop on their way south to refuel on the nectar from the ocean of yellow Bidens flowers at the wetlands, a fantastic site in its own right. We will have check-in and information tables just inside the boardwalk entrance to the wetlands so you can arrive and leave whenever you please. The monarchs are usually roosting or clustering (sometimes in spectacular concentrations!) until around 8:30AM. As it warms up, they begin foraging on the Bidens flowers around the boardwalk.

Complete details are available online at 2008 Monarch Watch Tagging Event – there we plan to feature a live audio/video broadcast and post photos during the event so that everyone that can’t make it can at least see (and hear!) what’s going on. You will also be able to participate in a live chat session with fellow Monarch Watchers.

Monarch Watch Fall Open House – Wow!

Our recent Fall Open House was like no other. We had at least 1,000 people visit Monarch Watch that day (twice the usual number) and we gave out over 450 chrysalids to the children in attendance. The weather was less than ideal – cloudy with occasional rain and not a one of the 200 butterflies in the Biohouse so much as opened their wings but it didn’t seem to matter to our visitors. The garden (Monarch Waystation #1) so carefully nurtured by Margarete Johnson and her colleagues among the Douglas County Master Gardeners, was spectacular. With a little sun the garden would have been filled with butterflies as well as fantastic flowers.

A photo slideshow (50 images) is available online and other details are available at MonarchWatch.org/openhouse

At least one of our visitors blogged about the event – you can read her article and see her photos here: Monarch Watch 2008 Open House

My thanks to all and especially to the Monarch Watch crew, particularly Jim Lovett and Ann Ryan, who made this event possible.

Monarch Watch Fall Open House

Come visit us this Saturday – in person or online! 🙂

Monarch Watch Open House
Saturday, 6 September 2008 8am-3pm

Join us at our Fall Open House at Foley Hall (KU West Campus) on Saturday, September 6th to celebrate the arrival of migrating monarchs coming from the north. This free event is designed to please children and adults alike.

At the Open House you can learn about creating Monarch Waystations and see the magnificent butterfly and pollinator garden created and maintained by Margarete Johnson and the Douglas County Master Gardeners. Weather permitting, you will see an abundance of butterflies and numerous other small but important pollinators. On a good day over 20 species of butterflies visit the garden. The Biohouse, adjacent to the garden, will be filled with monarchs and other species. The Biohouse and garden contain numerous butterfly flowers. Bring your cameras. It is well worth a visit.

As usual, we will provide refreshments, lots of show & tell (including a honey bee observation hive and some “Oh, my!” insects you may have never seen before), tours of our gardens and lab space, hands-on activities, games, videos, monarch tagging demonstrations, iChat videoconferencing, and, of course, lots of monarch caterpillars, pupae, and butterflies!

We will also have a limited number of Monarch pupae (to emerge as a butterfly at home or at school) that will be given to each child in attendance, while supply lasts.

If you can’t be there, be sure to visit us online at the address below to see what we’re doing – we plan on having at least a couple of webcams broadcasting the day’s events.

Again, the Monarch Watch Fall Open House will be at Foley Hall on KU’s West Campus, Lawrence, KS on Saturday, 6 September 2008 8am-3pm. For more information, a map, and directions, visit

For images of some of the butterflies and caterpillars seen at last year’s event see the photo gallery at: www2.ljworld.com/photos/galleries/2007/sep/07/butterflies/

2008 Tags – Going Fast!

The 2008 monarch tagging season is upon us!

Many of you ordered early and have already received your tagging kits – if you haven’t ordered yet there is still time, but the 2008 Monarch Watch Tagging Kits are going fast. If you would like to participate in the 2008 season tagging this fall, please place your order for tags as soon as possible so that you don’t miss out.

Monarch Tagging Kits are only shipped to areas east of the Rocky Mountains.

As usual, each tagging kit includes a set of specially manufactured monarch butterfly tags (you specify quantity), a datasheet, tagging instructions, and additional monarch/migration information. Standard Tagging Kits for the 2008 season start at only $15 and include your choice of 25, 50, 100, 200, 300, or 500 tags. Sets of 20 Mini Tagging Kits (5 tags each) are available for $40 – for Nature Center programs, etc. that would like to distribute a small number of tags to participants.

Tagging Kits and other materials (don’t forget to pick up a butterfly net!) are available via the Monarch Watch Shop online at Shop.MonarchWatch.org

HAPPY TAGGING!

Where are the monarchs??

“Where are the monarchs?” has been a common question asked of us over the last month or so and the following is the best answer I can provide at this time.

Thanks to all of you who have contacted us with your assessments of the status of the monarch population. The vast majority of reports indicate that the monarch population appears to be much lower than normal. Most of these observations have been from areas where the monarchs are between broods and sightings of adults are usually low in early and mid July. So, this aspect of the reports is not alarming. The general absence (or low numbers) of larvae, as indicated in many reports, is of greater concern. The larvae present now mature into adults in late July and early August. These butterflies produce the offspring (from eggs generally laid from the 20th of July to the 10th of August) that become the butterflies that join the fall migration. Again, with few exceptions, unless you are all missing something out there, the number of reproducing adults over the next three weeks will be low, to be followed by a relatively small migratory generation. This assessment could be wrong of course and let’s hope that this is the case.

Assuming our collective assessments are, in fact, correct and that the population is low, how do we account for the lower than expected number of monarchs?

Here is what I know about the monarch population (December 2007 to the present):

1. The overwintering population in Mexico measured 4.61 hectares, a bit lower than the average of about 6 hectares in recent years, but not alarmingly so.

2. Although mortality during the winter was higher than normal at one location on Cerro Pelon, overwintering mortality appeared to be normal at other locations.

3. Examination of monarchs at several colonies at the end of the season showed them to be in remarkable condition with large numbers of nearly immaculate butterflies with large fat bodies. The proportion of monarchs in poor condition appeared to be lower than normal.

4. The migration into Texas appeared to be quite good, although a bit delayed. Some monarchs lingered at the overwintering sites as late as the first week of April. Various observers in Texas reported large numbers of returning adults and others subsequently reported large numbers of larvae on milkweeds in pastures south of Dallas.

5. March temperatures in Texas were neither too hot nor too cold and the simple temperature based model I’m developing suggested at that time that the overwintering population might be as high as 8 hectares. All appeared to be well in Texas and on track to produce a large number of first generation monarchs that could colonize the northern breeding grounds.

6. The first generation monarchs usually pass through Kansas from the last few days of April through the first week of June. During good years, the movement of first generation monarchs through this area can be quite conspicuous with many of the passing monarchs stopping to lay eggs on the blooming milkweeds. There was no obvious “flow” of first generation monarchs through the area this year and relatively few eggs and larvae were found on milkweeds in May and early June.

7. This observation gives rise to two questions: a) was the first generation much smaller than expected? and b) are there other explanations for the relatively low numbers of monarchs that reached the northern breeding grounds? Or, is the explanation some composite of these two possibilities?

8. At this point there is no way to assess the success of the first generation in Texas and other southern states. If the fire ant population was higher than it has been in recent years, predation by these ants could have had an impact. However, I don’t think the ants are widespread or abundant enough to have a large-scale impact on the population. The weather during March and early April in Texas was favorable for reproduction so I’m inclined to look to another cause.

9. May, the moving month for first generation monarchs, was cold – throughout the entire northern breeding range. It was also a period of frequent storms and heavy rains, particularly during the second half of May. Early June also saw heavy rains, especially in the east north central and central portions of the country.

10. In spite of these limiting conditions, bursts of monarchs reached some northern breeding areas, notably Iowa, parts of Ontario, and southern New England.

11. So, how could the May and early June conditions have limited the monarchs? In a few words, by: a) limiting dispersal, b) reducing egg laying, and c) increasing mortality of adults. All together such effects result in a reduction of the potential fecundity of the generation and the “realized fecundity” is lower than expected. The impact of lower temperatures and heavy rains on survival of larvae are unknown but might also have reduced the population.

12. What about the future? The monarchs could surprise us. If temperatures are moderate for the remainder of the summer and a substantial number of eggs are laid from 20 July to 10 August, the population could rebound.

13. As a number of you have pointed out, this year is not a good year for butterflies in general. This means that the parasites and predators that make a living feeding on a broad range of lepidopterous larvae are starving or not reproducing in good numbers. If parasites and predators are low, the result could be that there will be a reduction in the loss of monarch larvae during the last generation giving rise to a larger migratory population that seems to be indicated at this time.

Based on what we know now, my expectation is that the overwintering population in Mexico will be lower than the 4.61 hectares measured last year. As always, I hope my predictions are overly pessimistic.