Monarch Watch Update January 2022

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Greetings Monarch Watchers and Happy New Year to all!

As many of you already know, Monarch Watch will be celebrating 30 years of education, conservation, and research in 2022 – WOW! We are not yet sure how we will mark this milestone, but there will certainly be a retrospective component and maybe an event or two. We will keep you informed via our blog, email updates, and social media. Thank you for your continued interest and support!

Included in this issue:
1. How Many Hectares in 2021-2022?
2. Western Monarchs
3. Monarch Watch One Day Fundraising Event
4. Monarch Watch Tagging Kits for 2022
5. Submitting Tag Data
6. Monarch Watch Mobile App
7. Free Milkweed Programs
8. A Monarch Puzzle
9. About This Monarch Watch List

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1. How Many Hectares in 2021-2022? – Chip Taylor
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Each year, at about this time, I administer a test – to myself. I have one question. How big, in term of hectares*, will the overwintering population be this year?

Technically, I fail the test every time and expect to. Realistically, it would be virtually impossible to correctly predict the overwintering numbers given the number of variables involved in each migration.

I look at many factors and draw on the historical record to arrive at a prediction. The conditions during the spring in Texas, the recolonization of the northern breeding areas in May, the summer temperatures, the weather during the migration and the availability of nectar sources in Texas all differ from year to year and all factor into the number of monarchs that reach the overwintering sites. The challenge for me is to assess each of these conditions for a given year and to compare these outcomes with the record that goes back to 1994.

After considering all of these factors for this past season, I came up with the following estimate: 0.8-1.2 hectares. Ouch! That’s low and lower than the 2.01 hectares measured last year. In fact, if 1.2 hectares this year, that would be the lowest number since the winter of 2014-2015. I know that that is not what anyone wants to hear, and I don’t want to accept those numbers myself, but that is what my assessment tells me. My history with these estimates is fair, but I usually underestimate the size of the population which means that I’m overestimating the negative impact of one or more factors. These over and under estimates speak to my goal which is to develop a deep understanding of all the factors that determine the size of the population. Being wrong goes along with learning how to refine my estimates. Last year my estimate for the hectare total was almost spot on – 2.0 hectares vs a measured 2.01 hectares. It was more of a guess than a data-based prediction, but I’ll take credit for being close. There are reasons to think I will be close again this year and other reasons to predict that the number will be higher.

For a detailed discussion of this season’s prediction please see the expanded “How many hectares in 2021-2022?” article posted today via the Monarch Watch blog.

*One hectare is equal to 2.47 acres. One acre is approximately the area of a football field exclusive of the end zones.

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2. Western Monarchs – Chip Taylor
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My father was a Certified Public Accountant, and had I demonstrated a facility for numbers, I might have become a CPA as well. Instead, I became a biologist which I naively assumed would mean that I wouldn’t have to work with numbers – at least not a lot. As it turns out, understanding monarchs, or more accurately, attempting to understand monarchs, requires a lot of number crunching. But that only works if we have some numbers to work with, and if the numbers are reasonably accurate.

This brings me to a monarch puzzle. Namely, how did the Western monarch population grow from an overwintering number of 1,914 in 2020 to over 200,000 in 2021? Both numbers are based on Xerces-sponsored Thanksgiving Day Counts. Each count involves an examination and estimation of the number of monarchs at 261 known overwintering locations and the search for new sites which are often on private land. At many sites, the number of monarchs is so low, the count is an actual count rather than an estimate. That was mostly the case last year and the Thanksgiving number was followed by an end of the year accounting that produced only 1,049 monarchs. The decline from 1,914 to 1,049 was not unexpected. From the end of a breeding season in September and October (depending on location), the population declines until the end of the first reproductive period in April.

There seem to be three possibilities, 1) monarchs originating from Mexico recolonized the breeding areas in the West in March and April, 2) there were thousands of overwintering monarchs that clustered at sites that have never been discovered or 3) that some monarchs that breed along the coast during the winter months responded to seasonal cues in March and moved inland where they gave rise to a first generation of monarchs that colonized the summer breeding ranges in the West, particularly those areas to the east and north of California.

I’ve attempted to determine if there is support for any of these possibilities and those interested in a deep dive into the numbers should read the expanded “Western Monarchs” article posted today via the Monarch Watch blog.

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3. Monarch Watch One Day Fundraising Event
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Monarch Watch will again be featured in the University of Kansas’ annual “One Day. One KU.” 24-hour fundraising campaign which will take place in mid-February. The event will provide an opportunity for Monarch Watchers all over the globe to come together and show their support of our program.

Last year many of you commented that you would’ve liked more notice of this event so this is just a quick heads up before an official announcement that will be made in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

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4. Monarch Watch Tagging Kits for 2022
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Monarch tagging continues to be an important tool to help us understand the monarch migration and annual cycle. We are now accepting PREORDERS for the 2022 fall tagging season and kits will be sent out in the fall, ahead of the migration in your area. If you would like to tag monarchs this year, please order your tags as early as possible!

Monarch Watch Tagging Kits are only shipped to areas east of the Rocky Mountains. Each tagging kit includes a set of specially manufactured monarch butterfly tags (you specify quantity), a data sheet, tagging instructions, and additional monarch / migration information. Tagging Kits for the 2022 season start at only $15 and include your choice of 25, 50, 100, 200, or 500 tags.

Monarch Watch Tagging Kits and other materials (don’t forget a net!) are available via the Monarch Watch Shop online at https://shop.monarchwatch.org – where each purchase helps support Monarch Watch.

Complete information including datasheets and instructions are available on the Monarch Tagging Program page at https://monarchwatch.org/tagging

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5. Submitting Tag Data
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Thousands of you have submitted your recent tag data to us by mail or via our online submission form – thank you! We are still receiving data sheets and if you haven’t submitted your data yet (for 2021 or even previous years) it is not too late. Please review the “Submitting Your Tagging Data” information on the tagging program page then send us your data via the Tagging Data Submission Form.

Complete information is available at https://monarchwatch.org/tagging if you have questions about submitting your data to us and we have conveniently placed a large “Submit Your Tagging Data” button on our homepage at https://monarchwatch.org that will take you directly to the online form.

There you can upload your data sheets as an Excel or other spreadsheet file (PREFERRED; download a template file from https://monarchwatch.org/tagging ) or a PDF/image file (scan or photo).

If you have any questions about getting your data to us, please feel free to drop Jim a line anytime via JLOVETT@KU.EDU

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6. Monarch Watch Mobile App
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A newly developed Monarch Watch mobile app (for iOS and Android) will make it easier for many taggers to record butterflies as they are tagged and submit data electronically. The beta testing of the app in the last few months has gone well, and we hope to launch it for general use during the 2022 tagging season. We will have much more to say about this in the coming months.

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7. Free Milkweed Programs
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For habitat restoration projects

New for Spring 2022 — Free Milkweeds for California restoration!

Monarch Watch will once again be distributing free milkweeds for planting in large-scale habitat restoration projects for Spring 2022. Since this program began in 2015, almost 252,000 milkweeds [edit: more than 650,000 milkweeds] have been planted in restored habitat throughout much of the range of the eastern monarch population. New this year: Help the Western monarch population with FREE MILKWEEDS FOR MOST AREAS OF CALIFORNIA! To qualify, applicants must have a minimum of two acres (one acre in CA) to restore to natural, native habitat, and have a management plan in place. Milkweeds are awarded on a first come, first served basis, so apply early.

Those awarded free milkweeds need only pay shipping/handling, which is modest compared to the value of the plants. Please help us spread the word by sharing widely. For more information and to apply, please visit:

https://monarchwatch.org/free-milkweed-restoration

For Schools and Nonprofits

The Free Milkweeds for Schools and Nonprofits Grant is in its 8th year and we are still distributing free milkweeds to those who qualify. Through the generous support of the Natural Resources Defense Council, this program provides funding for 6000 plants. Each recipient receives one full flat of milkweed plants to be added to a public garden. Schools, libraries, nature centers and museums are examples of past recipients. This program is available to applicants in California and all states east of the Rocky Mountains. The application can be found here:

https://monarchwatch.org/free-milkweed-schools-nonprofits

Sorry, this program is not intended for private yards or free milkweed giveaways.

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8. A Monarch Puzzle – Chip Taylor
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Get out your pencils!

We know that directional flight (migration) by first generation monarchs that have moved northward stops sometime in June, but we aren’t sure when it stops, where it stops or why. I have an idea based on one data point that may explain the when and why for a series of latitudes. I’m going to explain the observation and tell you when I expect directional flight ends at the latitudes of Ames, IA, St Paul, MN and Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Many years ago, I asked an undergraduate to pay special attention to directional flight by monarchs in late May and June. We knew that first generation monarchs from the South Region (Texas and Oklahoma) were moving through the area at that time on the way north to the summer breeding grounds north of 40N. We also knew that that migration stopped suddenly but we didn’t know when or why. She went to a location with lots of common milkweed patches at which the passing monarchs would stop briefly but then continue flying N/NE. The last day she spotted monarchs moving to the N/NE was the 5th of June. That got me thinking, if I know when they stopped in Lawrence, could I extrapolate from the conditions on the 5th of June to those in other latitudes? Well, I’ve done so, and the prediction is that directional flight should stop in Ames on the 7th, in St Paul on the 9th and Winnipeg on the 12th.

So here is the puzzle: what do the dates at the latitudes represented by these cities have in common with the conditions that occur on the 5th of June in Lawrence, Kansas?

If you think you have figured out what these four locations have in common on the dates indicated and have an explanation for why migratory flight probably stops on these dates, send your answer to Monarch Watch at monarch@ku.edu (with “Puzzle Submission” in the Subject line) by the 31st of January 2022. We will reward the three best answers with a copy of the new migration board game “Mariposas”.

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9. About This Monarch Watch List
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Monarch Watch ( https://monarchwatch.org ) is a nonprofit education, conservation, and research program affiliated with the Kansas Biological Survey & Center for Ecological Research at the University of Kansas. The program strives to provide the public with information about the biology of monarch butterflies, their spectacular migration, and how to use monarchs to further science education in primary and secondary schools. Monarch Watch engages in research on monarch migration biology and monarch population dynamics to better understand how to conserve the monarch migration and also promotes the protection of monarch habitats throughout North America.

We rely on private contributions to support the program and we need your help! Please consider making a tax-deductible donation. Complete details are available at https://monarchwatch.org/donate or you can simply call 785-832-7374 (KU Endowment Association) for more information about giving to Monarch Watch.

If you have any questions about this email or any of our programs, please feel free to contact us anytime.

Thank you for your continued interest and support!

Jim Lovett
Monarch Watch
https://monarchwatch.org

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