Monarch Watch Update March 2021

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Greetings Monarch Watchers!

Included in this issue:
1. Bicycling with Butterflies: Free Live Online Event
2. Monarch Watch Spring Plant Fundraiser
3. Monarch Population Status
4. Returning Monarchs & Spring Resources
5. Monarch Tag Recoveries
6. Submitting Tag Data
7. Monarch Calendar Project
8. About This Monarch Watch List

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1. Bicycling with Butterflies: Free Live Online Event
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You are invited to join Monarch Watch Director Chip Taylor and Author & Outdoor Educator Sara Dykman at 7:00pm CDT on 13 April 2021 for an online event hosted by Monarch Watch and The Raven Book Store. Hear stories from Dykman’s inspirational ride alongside the monarchs, learn about monarch conservation efforts, and participate in a Question & Answer session. There is no software to download and you will be able to view and interact with participants within a standard web browser (Chrome, Safari, Firefox, Edge, etc.) via the link below.

Register today for the April 13th online event via https://monarchwatch.org/bicyclingwithbutterflies

In 2017 Sara Dykman became the first person to bicycle the entire route of the migrating monarch butterfly. She traveled from Mexico to Canada and back on an old mountain bike weighted down with all the supplies she would need for nine months on the road. Along her 10,201-mile route Dykman gave presentations to people about the monarchs and what people can do to protect the migration. She became a voice for the monarchs. Now her voice has the potential to travel even further, with the launch of her book, Bicycling with Butterflies. Part science, part adventure, part love letter to nature, Dykman hopes her book will inspire people to see the beauty of our own backyards and the power each of us has to be part of the solution.

Order your copy of Bicycling with Butterflies from Monarch Watch by April 13th to receive a copy signed by the author. As a bonus, the first 30 copies will also include an art print created by Sara. Visit https://monarchwatch.org/book/9781643260457 to preorder her book and we will ship your signed copy out to you in early April.

“I corresponded with Sara Dykman before her venture started to help her with her route and the timing and also connected her with a few people and venues. I met her briefly when she came through Lawrence. I was skeptical of the entire venture, as were most who advised or met Sara. We were wrong to doubt her. She completed her mission of tracing the annual two-way migration undertaken by millions of monarch butterflies. It was an extraordinary feat, a compelling quest by a strong yet sensitive person who struggles with her self-doubt, anger, vulnerabilities and occasionally her decision making. Yet, Sara persevered and stayed the course. She made a connection with and commitment to monarchs and herself. Through her narrative, told with a writer’s eye for detail and a biologist’s sensitivity to the fragile nature of the systems that support wildlife and humans, she helps us see how everything is connected. Sara also exposes the readers to some of the patterns in our society that are in conflict with the greater good and she will connect many with monarchs for the first time. Her narrative is an important wake-up call for the need to stay connected to nature.” –Chip Taylor

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2. Monarch Watch Spring Plant Fundraiser
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Our annual Spring Plant Fundraiser is coming soon and we will once again have thousands of plants looking for good homes! As many of you already know, we have moved to online ordering and local curbside pickup (or limited local delivery) for this event. To place an order you must live in, or be willing to travel to, LAWRENCE, KANSAS (we cannot ship). These plants are ideal for starting butterfly gardens or adding to established gardens and can contribute to the health of monarch and pollinator populations. Don’t miss out!

A complete list of plants and online ordering will available beginning in mid-April; contactless curbside pickup appointments will be scheduled for May 6-8. Please note that dates are subject to change. We plan to make a brief announcement via email, Facebook, etc. once online ordering is available but you may also check the link below in a few weeks and it will take you to the Spring Plant Fundraiser.

Monarch Watch Spring Plant Fundraiser: https://spring.monarchwatch.org

If you are not able to participate locally we invite you to contribute to this fundraiser by donating to Monarch Watch via https://monarchwatch.org/donate

Thank you!

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3. Monarch Population Status —by Chip Taylor
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In recent years, I’ve written extensively about the development of the monarch population from early March through September, often ending with predictions about the size of the overwintering population. My prediction this year was close. In an earlier post to the Blog, I wrote “I’ll be surprised, and pleased, if the total population measures over 2 hectares”. On 25 February 2021, World Wildlife Fund Mexico in collaboration with CONANP and the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) announced that the total forest area occupied by overwintering monarch colonies was 2.1 hectares, a 26% decrease from the previous season (see https://monarchwatch.org/blog/2021/02/25/monarch-population-status-45/). My prediction was based on the timing and patterns of recolonization, the summer and September temperatures and what I know from tagging about the probabilities that monarchs originating from different regions will survive to overwinter in Mexico.

The size of the monarch population from generation to generation and ultimately the number of migrants in the last generation is determined by spring and summer conditions, including the quantity and quality of host and nectar sources available. In 2020, the pattern of recolonization and population development from March to early June was modest at best in the Upper Midwest and disappointing in the Northeast. Recolonization was followed by a hot summer (June–August) in both the Upper Midwest (2.7°F above average) and the Northeast (3.2°F above average). Mean summer temperatures greater than 2°F in the Upper Midwest are usually associated with low numbers of migrants and a decline from the previous year in overwintering numbers. The best reports of monarch numbers late in the summer were from west of 90°W (west of Madison, Wisconsin) and mostly north of Iowa. That’s a small area of high productivity relative to most years. These conditions and various reports throughout the summer led to the expectation that the migratory population would be smaller than in 2019. Later, reports from taggers indicated that fewer taggers were using all their tags, again suggesting a smaller migration.

Nevertheless, it was apparent that conditions during the 2020 migration were more favorable than in 2019. The migration was not late, as it was in 2019, and there was no shortage of nectar this year due to a drought in Texas and northeast Mexico. Both the lateness of the migration and the Texas drought were factors that contributed to the low numbers of migrants reaching the overwintering sites in Mexico in 2019. Monarchs were more or less on time this year with conditions more like those seen in the mid 1990s than seen in recent years. The monarchs also arrived in late October in time for the Day of the Dead (November 1–2).

Whether monarchs rebound this year will depend on the number of returning monarch females, nectar and host plant availability (see text on spring conditions in Texas), March and early April temperatures, and then the conditions the from May to September. I will try to keep everyone updated about the development of the population this year.

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4. Returning Monarchs & Spring Resources —by Chip Taylor
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The monarch breeding season starts each year with the arrival in Texas of monarchs that overwintered in Mexico in mid-March. Both sexes visit flowers for nectar to fuel flight and mating and females search out milkweeds on which to lay eggs as the return migration continues to advance to the north and east. But what will they find in the way of resources this year given the prolonged freeze in Texas in mid-February?

I expressed my concern about this situation and outlined my intent to create a community science project to assess the status of milkweeds and nectar sources on the Monarch Watch discussion list Dplex-L in late February. My intent was to recruit a large number of volunteers for this project, but given the short time frame and the complexities of how to report the data, I asked for advice. John Barr quickly offered that instead of trying to create something new, that I ask iNaturalist to create a special project along these lines. That was good advice, and the folks at iNaturalist kindly obliged. Below you will find the link to this project along with the first paragraphs that explain the justification for this effort. As the season progresses, we will be able to compare the observations recorded this year with those logged to the site previously.

Texas Winter Storm 2021 Plant & Pollinator Survey: https://www.inaturalist.org/projects/texas-winter-storm-2021-plant-pollinator-survey

The February freeze damaged vegetation across Texas. We’d like your help tracking the recovery of plants that flower in March along with milkweeds. Both are resources used by monarchs returning from Mexico in mid-March and their availability will determine how well the monarch population develops in 2021.

The 11-day cold spell (10-20 February) in Texas was a disaster. Freezing temperatures covered the state and extended well into Northern Mexico. While many of the immediate effects of the freeze are clear, season long and multiple year effects may linger. The damage to the flora was extraordinary, and it is likely that nearly all above ground insects died over a wide area. Plants already in flower may have been so damaged as to not flower this year. We are seeking help to record that damage and the recovery of plants that flower in March along with the appearance of milkweed shoots and buds. Both are resources used by monarchs returning from Mexico in mid-March. We also need help recording the number of returning monarchs. ALL monarch observations are of value. How well the monarch population will develop in 2021 will be determined by the March conditions in Texas.

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5. Monarch Tag Recoveries
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The tagging program provides us with two main sources of information: the tagging records themselves and the recoveries of tagged monarchs in Mexico. By virtue of the records on the returned data sheets, we can infer the timing and pace of the migration for each year. The resulting year to year comparisons have been helpful in helping us understand the influence of weather patterns on the development of the populations each year in different regions of the country as well as the success of the migration. The recoveries, on the other hand, tell us about the relative success of migrants due to timing and area of origin.

As you know, in Mexico, guides and local residents look for tags among the dead butterflies that litter the forest floor beneath the trees with monarch clusters. In recent years, people representing Monarch Watch, most often Monarch Conservation Specialists, have paid for these recoveries and have returned them to us in Kansas. That has worked well, but what about this year of Covid-19 and restricted travel? We worked on several scenarios to recover tags, but all the options posed difficulties. We needed someone to step up and someone did. Diane Pruden, a Monarch Conservation Specialist of long-standing and frequent visitor to Mexico, declared that, after a long winter in Michigan, she needed a shot of Mexico in addition to her two vaccinations.

Diane recently traveled to Mexico where, working with Estela Romero and Ellen Sharp, she was able to purchase over 650 tags. Our thanks to everyone for acquiring these tags. Obtaining these recoveries is a major achievement given the lower number of visitors to the colonies this season and the general restrictions imposed by Covid-19. We will process these records and update the recoveries on our website in April. The list of “domestic recoveries” (those within the US, Canada and northern Mexico) was updated recently.

Monarch Watch Tag Recoveries: https://monarchwatch.org/tagrecoveries

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6. Submitting Tag Data
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Thousands of you have already submitted your 2020 season tag data to us by mail or via our online submission form – thank you! If you haven’t submitted your data yet (from any season) please review the “Submitting Your Tagging Data” information on the tagging program page then send us your data at your earliest convenience via the Tagging Data Submission Form.

Complete information is available at https://monarchwatch.org/tagging/ if you have questions about submitting your data to us and we have conveniently placed a large orange “Submit Your Tagging Data” button on our homepage at https://monarchwatch.org that will take you directly to the online form.

There you can upload your data sheets as an Excel or other spreadsheet file (PREFERRED; download a template file from https://monarchwatch.org/tagging/) or a PDF/image file (scan or photo).

If you have any questions about getting your data to us, please feel free to drop Jim a line anytime via JLOVETT@KU.EDU

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7. Monarch Calendar Project
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Monarch Watch is again seeking the assistance of hundreds of monarch enthusiasts in collecting observations of monarchs in their area during specific periods of the spring and fall. If you would like to participate this year, all you have to do is: 1. REGISTER (just so we know where you are located and how to reach you), 2. RECORD (keep a record of the number of monarch butterflies you observe each day during the time period dictated by your location) and 3. SUBMIT (at the end of the observation period in the fall we will send participants a link to an online form to submit their observation data).

As before, please make note of your daily monarch observations using whatever recording system works for you (spreadsheets, printed calendar sheets, notebooks, etc.) and we will send out links to the online submission forms once the observation periods have closed for both the north and south regions.

Complete details and a link to the short registration form are available at https://monarchwatch.org/calendar/

Please note that OBSERVATION PERIOD 1 began March 15th for those in the South (latitude less than 35N) and begins April 1st for those in the North (latitude greater than 35N). It is not too late to join in!

Happy monarch watching and stay safe!

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8. About This Monarch Watch List
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Monarch Watch (https://monarchwatch.org) is a nonprofit education, conservation, and research program affiliated with the Kansas Biological Survey at the University of Kansas. The program strives to provide the public with information about the biology of monarch butterflies, their spectacular migration, and how to use monarchs to further science education in primary and secondary schools. Monarch Watch engages in research on monarch migration biology and monarch population dynamics to better understand how to conserve the monarch migration and also promotes the protection of monarch habitats throughout North America.

We rely on private contributions to support the program and we need your help! Please consider making a tax-deductible donation. Complete details are available at https://monarchwatch.org/donate/ or you can simply call 785-832-7452 (KU Endowment) for more information about giving to Monarch Watch.

If you have any questions about this update or any of our programs, please feel free to contact us anytime.

Thank you for your continued interest and support!

Jim Lovett
Monarch Watch
https://monarchwatch.org

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