Deforestation and Monarch Conservation

The rapid degradation of monarch habitats in both Mexico and the United States is now too compelling to ignore. We must act.

DEFORESTATION AND MONARCH CONSERVATION
Chip Taylor (Monarch Watch)
13 March 2008

Earlier this month, Lincoln Brower, Dan Slayback, Robert Simmon, and Isabel Ramirez published NASA photos showing deforestation within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico. At the time of publication, we (Monarch Watch) were in Mexico buying recovered tags as part of our program to assess the dynamics of the monarch migration. We visited four monarch colonies and witnessed first-hand the impact of deforestation. The rapid degradation of monarch habitats in both Mexico and the United States is now too compelling to ignore. We must act. In this communication, I’ll summarize my views on the effects of habitat loss in Mexico and the United States and will reflect on what needs to be done to conserve the monarch migration.

Impact of Deforestation on Monarchs

Deforestation is already contributing to the mortality of overwintering monarchs. In the winter of 2006-2007 a small monarch colony formed at a site known locally as Aseradero on the northwest aspect of Cerro Pelon, one of the most deforested areas in the region. The trees at this location were relatively small (4-10 meters) and offered little protection from winds and cold weather. A large proportion of the monarchs died at this site when the temperature dropped below freezing in January 2007. No surviving monarchs were present when we visited this location in March 2007 (see “New Tree Nursery Near Cerro Pelon”).

The degradation of the forest surrounding the Aseradero colony can be seen in satellite photos of the area (see monarchwatch.org/mx/aseradero.jpg).

This year at Cerro Pelon, the El Capulin colony formed in a relatively degraded forest near the top of a ridge. Monarch colonies typically move during the winter and tend to progress down southwesterly-facing slopes. In this case, the monarchs moved progressively down-slope to the northwest across a badly degraded area and settled in the Las Canoas arroyo where we saw them on the 6th of March. There is one large tree in the arroyo and it was covered with monarchs (see monarchwatch.org/mx/capulin.jpg and monarchwatch.org/mx/capulin-tree.jpg). The surrounding trees were also covered with monarchs but there was little in the way of canopy to protect the butterflies from freezing temperatures. I was shocked to see how exposed this colony was at this time but now realize that it has been exposed through most of the winter, resulting in the death of millions of monarchs. Typically, 10-20% of the monarchs at each colony die of various causes during the winter, though rainfall followed by freezing temperatures can be devastating as it was in January of 2002 and January and February of 2004. Excessive mortality due to exposure throughout the winter is not the norm for monarch colonies. Evidence of greater mortality for the El Capulin colony this year comes from eyewitness accounts and is also reflected in the number of tag recoveries. In years without catastrophic mortality due to winter storms, we recover an average of twenty-two tags from the residents of communities on Cerro Pelon. The tags are usually found on dead butterflies beneath the clusters and the numbers recovered from most of the colonies appear to be proportional to the overwintering mortality. Ninety-two tags were recovered at Cerro Pelon this season – more than four times the typical rate of recovery.

Deforestation

The rate of deforestation in the Monarch Biosphere Reserve exceeds the rate of natural forest replacement and the current efforts at reforestation. It is simply not sustainable and must be reduced. Estimates of the rate of deforestation vary depending on the time period, the authorities involved, and perhaps the methodologies used to make the estimates. Nevertheless, it is clear that the average annual rate of deforestation (2-5%) is devastating the monarch overwintering habitat and destroying the forests that sustain the water supplies supporting the people in the region. Nearly all of the old growth forests with >200 year-old oyamel fir trees are gone from the monarch reserve and for decades monarchs have overwintered in areas with trees ranging from 40 to 80 years of age. In the last two years, possibly due to the lack of more mature forests, monarchs have attempted to overwinter at three sites at which most of the trees were less than 15 years old. Such forests do not protect the monarchs from periodic freezes and monarch mortality is known to have been high at two of these sites.

Illegal logging persists in spite of President Calderon’s attempts to crack down on these activities (see “Crackdown on Illegal Logging in Mexico”) and it seems certain to continue. Local residents at Cerro Pelon told me that 2-3 loaded logging trucks leave the core zone on that mountain each night – with the knowledge of local officials. In their view, the only way to control illegal logging is to station rotating units of the Mexican army in areas where illegal logging is extensive. Stopping illegal logging may be impossible, but reducing these activities to manageable levels through enforcement and incentives is needed to slow the rate of degradation of these forests.

Reforestation

At current levels of planting, reforestation can’t keep pace with deforestation. Close to half of the 56,259-hectare Monarch Biosphere Reserve is degraded and in need of some degree of reforestation. Two reforestation efforts are underway, one by World Wildlife Fund Mexico (WWFMX), in collaboration with the Mexican government, and the other by the Michoacan Reforestation Fund (MRF). The former has planted more than 2.1 million fir, pine, and cedar trees (mostly in the core of the reserve) over the last 4 years. MRF, using contributions from individuals and grants from American Forests, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, and United States Fish and Wildlife Service has worked with the La Cruz Habitat Protection Project in Mexico to plant more than 2.7 million fir and pine trees (mostly in the buffer zone and areas adjacent to the reserve) over the last 10 years. Although both of these programs are striving to reforest the monarch reserve, more trees need to be planted just to keep pace with the rate of deforestation. Frankly, reforestation efforts need to increase 2-3 fold in the next few years so that areas progressively degraded over the life of the reserve can be replanted. A promising development is the creation of a new tree nursery with the capacity of 800,000 seedlings per year at San Juan Xoconusco by WWFMX and Mexican government agencies (see “New Tree Nursery Near Cerro Pelon”). Four additional nurseries are in the planning stages, each with an annual capacity of 50,000 seedlings. MRF is increasing its capacity as well but more money is needed by both of these programs to assure that more seedlings are propagated, planted, and well tended.

The ease of reforestation depends greatly on the type of landscape being planted. Areas that have been selectively logged and contain mature trees reseed and therefore require little planting. Landscapes that were formerly crop lands are easily reforested as secondary growth is readily controlled. Clear-cut areas, which are rapidly invaded by dense 3-4 meter tall weedy vegetation, are particularly challenging to reforest since this vegetation competes for light, space, and nutrients and chokes out the newly planted trees. The north side of Cerro Pelon has been nearly clear-cut and the growth and survival of seedlings planted in the cut over areas appears to be quite low (see monarchwatch.org/mx/pelon.jpg). Reestablishing the forest on this slope will involve many replantings, take a long time, and cost a great deal.

Habitat Loss in United States

Habitat loss in the United States is also a threat to the monarch population. Development consumes 6,000 acres (9.4 square miles) a day, 2.2 million acres per year – this is roughly equivalent to losing an area of habitat the size of the state of Illinois (the 24th largest U.S. state) every sixteen years. In addition, the adoption of Roundup® Ready soybeans and corn has reduced monarch habitat by at least 100 million acres since 1996 (see “Roundup Ready Crops and Resistant Weeds”). Further, the incentives to produce biofuels over the last three years is leading growers to convert monarch habitat in the form of marginal lands and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acreage to cornfields. In an attempt to compensate for these losses, Monarch Watch initiated the Monarch Waystation program in 2005. The goals of this program are to create, conserve, and protect monarch habitats and to educate the public about the need to do more to preserve wildlife. To date, 1,900 Monarch Waystations have been certified and registered, but this is not enough. We need to create and protect more habitat for monarchs and other species. It is easy for me to envision the monarch migration as already being on a long slow death spiral – I have worked with monarchs for the last sixteen years and witnessed habitat degradation in both the United States and Mexico. Indeed, the population may be declining already (see “Overwintering Monarch Population 2007-2008”). What a shame it would be to lose this magnificent natural phenomenon – a sad indictment of the quality of human stewardship. This need not happen; all of the problems associated with monarch conservation can be solved. We need the will, cooperation, and dollars (and pesos) to make it happen.

The Solutions

A Mexican colleague wisely pointed out that the monarchs will not be saved unless a way is found to make the living trees more valuable than those that are cut for lumber. This statement makes sense but how can the “collective we” (i.e., all of those interested in monarch conservation including WWFMX and the Mexican government) convince the members of the ninety-one ejidos and indigenous communities in the monarch reserve that it is in their best interests to protect the forests? A possible solution is a system of incentives. To make the living trees more valuable may require paying the local residents to plant, thin, and otherwise maintain the forests rather than paying them not to cut the trees. A system of incentives involving fair compensation for forest management, rather than one of prohibitions, is badly needed. Incentives available to all communities are likely to be more successful than the present scheme in which some of the communities benefit from tourism while others do not receive this source of income. Some progress is being made in providing incentives through funds available from the Monarch Fund. This fund, which is administered by WWFMX, was established from a $5 million grant from the Packard Foundation with an addition of $1 million from the Mexican government and a total of $750,000 from the states of Michoacan and Mexico. The interest from this fund is used to pay cooperating communities. However, these funds (about $224,000/year) are not sufficient to engage the residents of all the communities within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in the level of stewardship required to sustain the forests. Fully funding the incentive program I envision will necessitate an increase in the Monarch Fund’s endowment from the $6.75 million at present to at least $25 million. Endowments are used to sustain many worthwhile programs and could be used effectively to conserve monarchs as well. This incentive program is not the only solution. Complimentary programs such as Alternare are needed to train local residents so they can more efficiently farm their lands and develop alternative sources of income.

Monarchs as a Metaphor for Conservation

Monarch conservation involves international and local politics, inadequate international cooperation, insufficient funding, habitat loss due to legally sanctioned development and illegal exploitation, a group of passionate advocates, and a largely uninformed and indifferent public. Efforts are underway to improve international cooperation but progress is slow. Insufficient funding limits most conservation efforts and that is the case here. More funding is needed to support international cooperation, reforestation, and protection of the existing forest resources.

Further, the planet is changing rapidly and monarchs are certain to be negatively affected by global warming and indirectly affected by increasing levels of carbon dioxide, nitrification, and the increasing unpredictability of rainfall (see “Changes in the Composition of Plant Communities”). To effectively protect the monarch migration, we will need to address numerous political, economic, and environmental issues.

Acknowledgements

Lincoln Brower, Carlos Galindo Leal, and Eduardo Rendon Salinas provided information used in this summary but all the opinions in the above are mine. Jim Lovett, Ann Ryan, and Janis Lentz reviewed the text and provided useful suggestions.

Orley R. “Chip” Taylor
Director, Monarch Watch
University of Kansas
Lawrence, KS 66045

Where in the World?

Some of you may have noticed that we have been out of touch this month. So where in the world were we? Instead of giving you 1,000 words at this time, I think a quick photo of Ann and I that Chip took last week should do the trick for now. We’ll have lots more to say and show very soon – stay tuned!

Milkweed and Nectar Plant Phenology Project

Coming soon to a website near you – a new project to record the phenology of milkweeds and nectar plants used by monarchs. Phenology is the term given to the study of the seasonal progression of natural events involving plants and animals. In this case, we are interested in recording a series of “firsts” (first emergence of shoots, first flower bud, etc.). This study is needed to monitor the effects of proximate seasonal conditions and long-term effects of climate change on the plants on which monarchs depend.

These kinds of data are also needed to help us sort out the impacts of human-induced (anthropogenic) changes in the environment and those due to weather and climate. In short, we need to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the changing availability of the host and nectar plant resources utilized by monarchs. We will monitor 6 species of milkweeds and 10 nectar plants. Our goal is to create maps with isoclines that show the progressive greening up of the resources used by monarchs. For this to be a successful project, one in which we can make comparisons of one year with another, we will need hundreds of you to contribute your “firsts” from all over the country. We hope you will participate. If you have a Monarch Waystation, this project is another good way to put it to use for monarchs.

This project is a collaborative effort and we anticipate that it will be fully online in mid March or perhaps a bit later. Just before the website becomes fully operational, we will outline the program in greater detail and will provide additional justification and instructions for this program. The growing season for milkweeds and nectar plants is about to start in the south and it may have already started in some areas. If you are in the south, please start keeping a record of dates now, as the data can be submitted later.

Additional announcements about this program will be posted in the coming weeks.

We will monitor the following growth (or phenophases) for milkweeds:

– Date of first emergence from soil – the first shoots to break soil
– Date of first flower bud (no matter how small)
– Date of first open flower or floret on a flower head
– Date of last flower on a flower head
– Date of first seed pod (marked by elongation of the ovary at the base of a flower)
– Date of first open seedpod

For the nectar plants we will only record the dates of first flowering.

The milkweed and nectar plant species have been selected on the basis of their broad distributions, their use as season markers (e.g., American plum) and their importance to monarchs. The links for each species will lead you to distribution maps, species accounts and images of the plants and the flowers.

Milkweed Species

Asclepias asperula – Spider milkweed [Distribution] [Images]

Asclepias incarnata – Swamp milkweed [Distribution] [Images]

Asclepias speciosa – Showy milkweed [Distribution] [Images]

Asclepias syriaca – Common milkweed [Distribution] [Images]

Asclepias tuberosa – Butterfly milkweed [Distribution] [Images]

Asclepias viridis – Green antelopehorn milkweed [Distribution] [Images]

We will monitor spring, summer and fall nectar plants.

Spring (April-May)

Syringa vulgaris – Common lilac [Distribution] [Images]

Taraxacum officinale – Common dandelion [Distribution] [Images]

Prunus americana – American plum [Distribution] [Images]

Summer (June-July)

Cephalanthus occidentalis – Common button bush [Distribution] [Images]

Echinacea purpurea – Eastern purple coneflower [Distribution] [Images]

Vernonia fasciculata – Prairie ironweed [Distribution] [Images]

Fall (August-October)

Helianthus annuus – Common sunflower [Distribution] [Images]

Oligoneuron rigidum (Solidago rigida) – Rigid goldenrod [Distribution] [Images]

Liatris aspera -Tall blazing star [Distribution] [Images]

Verbesina virginica – Frost weed [Distribution] [Images]

Symphyotrichum ericoides (Aster ericoides) – White heath aster [Distribution] [Images]

We hope you will participate in the phenology program outlined above. Observing plant growth and recording the data is quite easy – simply follow these steps:

1. Review the list of plants along with their pictures and distributions to determine which species occur in your area.

2. Create a journal (on paper and/or on your computer) listing the species you are most likely to observe.

3. Record the “firsts” for each species; e.g., first shoots, first flowers, first seed-pods, as appropriate, in your journal.

4. After you have accumulated a number of observations, visit the United States of America National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) website and record the data for each species. The USA-NPN website will have a separate section for the Monarch Watch plants by the 15th of May.

5. Be sure to make a note of the data that has been entered so as to avoid entering the same data at a later date.

This is a great project for classrooms, nature centers, families, and those interested in making additional uses of their Monarch Waystation habitats.

Revised 4-23-2008

How Does Your Garden Grow?

My interest in monarchs and monarch population dynamics is causing me to pay much more attention to the weather and to climates than I ever have before. Indeed, I’m now on a mission to educate those of you who might be interested in how weather influences plant growth and monarchs. For my own education and to record the growing degrees days, we’ve installed two Monarch Watch Temperature Loggers in our garden, Monarch Waystation #1.

The Temperature Loggers are small, relatively inexpensive, programmable recording temperature sensors. These reusable devices have a long battery life and can be used to record temperatures at defined intervals for days, weeks or even months. I recently downloaded the data from these loggers so that I might compare the temperature data from the garden with that recorded at the local airport and with the monthly mean temperatures for Kansas provided by the NOAA.

Winter is traditionally defined as the three-month period encompassing December, January, and February. The records listed in Table 1 are from 3 December 2007 until midday of the 25th of February. Our loggers were set to record the temperature every hour and to rollover and start a new record when the data limit has been reached, in this case in about 86 days. Unfortunately, rollover occurred – resulting in the loss of the earliest data from the first two days of December. Nevertheless, the data given for December and for the first 24.5 days of February should be close to the actual means for these months. Overall, the means are remarkably similar for each of these three months.

Table 1. Winter temperatures (2007-08) for Monarch Waystation #1, Lawrence, KS.

The mean temperature for December 2007 for Kansas, as found via the NOAA site, was 31.9F making December 2007 the 6th coldest over the last 30 years. The mean temperature for January was 28.9F, a bit warmer than the long time average and 11th coldest January among the last 30. These data are not yet available for February but this month has also been a bit colder than average. When all the data are assembled, this winter will measure as a tad colder than average. The mean temperatures for the garden are a bit colder than those for the state but this is not surprising since we are located in the northeast corner of a rather large state.

Of greater interest is the comparison of the garden temperature with those recorded for the official weather station for Lawrence (Table 2).

Table 2. Official winter temperatures (2007-08) for Lawrence, KS.

Interestingly, both the means highs and mean lows for the garden are consistently higher and lower for the garden than for the official weather station. The monthly means for January and February were at bit higher for the garden than those of the weather station. These differences are probably due to the location of the garden. The garden is in a slight depression and is protected to some degree from the wind, perhaps allowing heat to build up slightly during the day. However, being down-slope and in a slight depression, the area is subject to cold air drainage, perhaps accounting for the lower nighttime temperatures than at the official weather station. The differences between the two locations, though seemingly small, could have an impact on plant growth. We will compare the growing degree days through the season for both locations and will let you know if these differences are really significant.

Changes in the Composition of Plant Communities

Plant ecologists tell us that the species composition of plant communities is going to change as climates become warmer, as carbon dioxide (CO2) levels increase, as rainfall becomes more erratic, and as nitrification (due to the use of fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels) intensifies.

What does this mean for monarchs? We aren’t sure but there are some indications that the total impact of these factors could be quite negative for the milkweeds on which monarchs depend. Increasing nitrification tends to favor fast growing plants (C3 photosynthesis), particularly cold season grasses such as broome and fescue. Most of these grasses are species introduced from Europe. Warm season prairie grasses, such as big and little blue stem and Indian grass (C4 photosynthesis) will be at a disadvantage; similar results are expected for increases in CO2. Erratic rainfall is tolerated better by some species than others and which species are favored doesn’t appear to be predictable but seedling establishment by perennials such as milkweeds is likely to decline due to drying off under these conditions. Perennial grasses and forbs (flowering plants such as milkweeds) seem certain to decline in areas with long droughts and steadily decreasing rainfall over long periods.

In general, the predictions are that grasses, mostly fast-growing introduced species, will increase and that flowering plants will decrease resulting in an overall decrease in species diversity. Further, with increasing temperatures the habitat “niche” for many milkweeds will shift northward. Whether milkweeds will be able to follow these shifts and extend their distributions into new favorable areas is an open question. Generalist species and good colonizers such as the common milkweed should be able to extend their distributions. The distributions of many of the more specialized milkweeds, e.g., those that are confined to prairies or specialized habitats, are likely to shrink. Specialized species will be at a distinct disadvantage since habitat fragmentation is now so extensive that it is becoming less and less likely that seed dispersal by these species will be sufficient to allow step by step advances to new habitats that may arise due to warming to the north of the present distributions.

Spring is Coming!

Spring is coming and so are the monarchs. As the temperatures increase at the overwintering sites in Mexico from the low 60s in January to the high 60s and low 70s in early February monarch activity increases. The butterflies begin mating close to the 14th of February and shortly thereafter a few begin trickling northward with the largest numbers leaving the overwintering sites in the first two weeks of March. Worn monarchs, presumably from the overwintering sites, are reported in inland Texas toward the end of the first week in March each year. So, it won’t be long before monarchs start another breeding cycle.

We have big plans for this season and we need your help on several projects:

1. MONARCH WAYSTATIONS

We need to increase the number of registered Monarch Waystations by at least 1,000. There are now 1,871 registered habitats in the Monarch Waystation Registry and this number needs to grow given that we are losing 2.2 million acres of habitat per year due to development. As we’ve said before, we need you to help us market this program. Please show your Monarch Waystations to others and direct people to our web site. Your efforts will help educate the public of the need to protect habitats for monarchs and other wildlife.

2. HABITAT OBSERVATIONS

We need your to help us track the phenology (seasonal progression) of milkweeds and nectar plants. We will have a series of announcements describing how you can participate in this program in the coming weeks.

3. MONARCH OBSERVATIONS

Please report the first monarch you see this spring. We need a larger number of observations of first monarchs to determine how well the spring migration is synchronized with the growth phases of the milkweeds.

4. DEGREE DAY LOGGING

In future articles we will demonstrate how to record growing degree days for both milkweeds and monarchs in our Monarch Waystation. We hope that these demonstrations will encourage more of you to use these simple devices to learn more about the relationships between temperature and growth and development.

5. MONARCH TAGGING

Another tagging season will be here soon but it is not too soon to urge you to order your tags now. Again, we will limit the number of tags to 200,000 and once these are gone, they’re gone. So, do order early to avoid being disappointed.

Tagging Kits and other materials are available via the Monarch Watch Shop online at Shop.MonarchWatch.org

Milkweed Seed Kits

Our new Milkweed Seed Kit contains four (4) varieties of milkweed – the monarch butterfly’s exclusive host plant. Included are the following to help you create or enhance your monarch habitat:

Butterfly Milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa)
Common Milkweed (Asclepias syriaca)
Swamp Milkweed (Asclepias incarnata)
Tropical Milkweed (Asclepias curassavica)

Seeds come in individual packs (approximately 30 seeds each) printed with planting and other information. Additional species and planting details are available on our website at monarchwatch.org/milkweed

Milkweed Seed Kits are now available via the Monarch Watch Shop

If you are interested in more milkweed species and other butterfly plants, you might consider our Monarch Waystation Seed Kit (6 milkweeds & 6 additional butterfly plants). Either way, you’ll be contributing to monarch conservation by creating a monarch habitat so be sure to check out our Monarch Waystation Program to find out how you can register your habitat with Monarch Watch.

Monarch Watch Bookmarks

Ron Brancato, graphic artist and monarch enthusiast, has helped us create a set of six (6) amazing monarch bookmarks. Each bookmark features a beautiful photo on the front and related information on the back. Themes include monarch conservation, monarch research, monarch facts, Monarch Waystations, and more! Distributing these bookmarks is a great way to promote monarch conservation awareness – they make wonderful giveaways by schools, nature centers, and anyone interested in monarchs and Monarch Watch.

Packs of 60 bookmarks (10 each of the 6 designs) are now available via the Monarch Watch Shop – enjoy!

Reign of the Monarchs in Decline?

The Ventura County Star recently ran an article by Zeke Barlow “Plight of the butterflies” with the subtitle “Reign of the monarchs is in decline, but no one knows reason for the drop in population”. The reasons offered for the decline varied from drought to parasites to loss of habitat. No doubt it will be difficult to sort out the various causes and it may not be possible to assign a specific reason, or reasons, for the decline due to our incomplete knowledge of where the monarchs that populate the coastal California overwintering sites breed. Nevertheless, the article caused me to rush off to my favorite climate site (Climate at a Glance) to check on the temperature and moisture over the 1990 to 2007 period – the interval for which there is good data on the total numbers of monarchs at the Pismo Beach overwintering site. The precipitation and temperature data shown in the two figures below represent the Western Region that consists primarily of California and Nevada. The data for California alone are similar.

Let’s look at precipitation first:

Figure 1. Precipitation for the Western Region during the Summer (Jun-Aug) 1990-2007 Trend = -0.25 Inches / Decade. The Summer Average = 1.16 Inches for 1901–2000.

The first thing to notice is that there is a negative trend in the data with an average decline in precipitation of .25 inches per decade. This decline may not seem like much but it can have a profound impact of vegetation over time. The second thing to notice is that precipitation has been below average 6 of the last 8 years and only average the other two years. The monarch population has been in steady decline through this period:

Figure 2. Declining monarchs. Used with permission of the Ventura County Star and Zeke Barlow.

The temperatures for this period deviate even more dramatically from normal.

Figure 3. Temperatures for the West Region for Summer (Jun-Aug) 1990-2007 Trend = 1.40 degF / Decade. The Summer (Jun-Aug) Average = 71.62 degF for 1901–2000.

Temperatures have increased 1.40 degrees F per decade since 1990 in the West Region and have been higher than normal for 8 years in a row. If you compare the numbers of monarchs recorded each year (Figure 2), with the temperature records you can see that there is correspondence between the mean summer temperatures and the number of monarchs the following fall/winter. In general, when the temperatures are below normal the population increases in size and when it is above normal it decreases in size. Cool years include 91, 95, 97 and 98 all with high or increasing numbers. Hot years include 92, 94, 96 and 99-07. Notice that the population increased slightly in 93, the coolest year in the period and then declined again in the hot year that followed. The high monarch number year of 90 can’t be evaluated properly because we don’t know the size of the population from the previous year. A regression analysis will surely show that temperature explains much of the variation in the number of overwintering monarchs at Pismo Beach. However, such an analysis may be premature since we are not sure how many of these monarchs originate from areas outside the West Region of California and Nevada. Further, to apply a regional climate model to a single location may be going a bit too far. If it was clear, that the numbers of monarchs reported at Pismo were strongly correlated with the numbers of monarchs at all California overwintering sites, then a through climatic analysis might be fruitful.

Ok, let’s have a quiz. Why might high summer temperatures and droughts have a negative effect on the number of overwintering monarchs?

Here are some key words: metabolism, nectar availability, host plant quality, life span, realized fecundity. Got it? High temperatures and drought result in a higher metabolism, lower nectar availability, reduced host plant quality, shorter lifespans and an overall reduction of realized fecundity (eggs/lifetime). In Minnesota, the summer of 2006 promised to be the biggest migratory monarch population in 10-15 years but instead the population crashed due to high temperatures and a drought in July and early August that was coincident with the egg laying that produces the migratory generation.

How about the temperature and moisture impacts on plants? The key words in this case are: germination, establishment, growth, flowering, seed production, and disease resistance. You get the picture. Generally, long-term droughts lead to a reduction in the population sizes of many perennial species, such as milkweeds and nectar producing flower species, and leads to changes in the composition of plant communities with annuals replacing perennials.

Monarch Waystation Seed Kits Available

The Monarch Waystation Seed Kits for 2008 (item#125522) are now available via the Monarch Watch Shop (shop.monarchwatch.org or 800-780-9986). It is difficult to predict the demand for these kits and we have been conservative in assembling kits this season. If you would like to receive a seed kit (or give them as gifts!), please place your order as soon as possible so that you don’t miss out. If orders exceed our inventory we will attempt to create more kits; however, there is no guarantee that we will be able to do so in time for the 2008 season.

Each kit includes seeds of twelve varieties of milkweed (monarch host plant) and general nectar sources along with a detailed “Creating a Monarch Waystation” guide. Seeds come in individual packs (15-30 seeds each) printed with planting and other information.

The Standard Monarch Waystation Seed Kit includes (appropriate substitutions may be made due to seed availability):

BUTTERFLY WEED (Asclepias tuberosa)
SHOWY MILKWEED (Asclepias speciosa)
COMMON MILKWEED (Asclepias syriaca)
SWAMP MILKWEED (Asclepias incarnata subsp. incarnata)
SWAMP MILKWEED (Asclepias incarnata subsp. pulchra)
TROPICAL MILKWEED (Asclepias curassavica)
FLOSS FLOWER Blue Horizon (Ageratum houstonianum)
PURPLE CONEFLOWER (Echinacea purpurea)
TITHONIA TORCH Mexican Sunflower (Tithonia)
COSMOS, Dwarf Sensation Mix (Cosmos bipinnatus)
JOE PYE WEED (Eupatorium purpureum)
VERBENA (Verbena bonairiensis)

The California Monarch Waystation Seed Kit includes (appropriate substitutions may be made due to seed availability):

BUTTERFLY WEED (Asclepias tuberosa)
SHOWY MILKWEED (Asclepias speciosa)
TROPICAL MILKWEED (Asclepias curassavica)
PURPLE MILKWEED (Asclepias fruticosa)
SWAMP MILKWEED (Asclepias incarnata)
SWAN PLANT (Asclepias fruticosa)
FLOSS FLOWER Blue Horizon (Ageratum houstonianum)
PURPLE CONEFLOWER (Echinacea purpurea)
TITHONIA TORCH Mexican Sunflower (Tithonia)
COSMOS, Dwarf Sensation Mix (Cosmos bipinnatus)
JOE PYE WEED (Eupatorium purpureum)
VERBENA (Verbena bonairiensis)

Be sure to check out all of the information about our Monarch Waystation conservation initiative on our website. Thank you for your support!