Monarch Watch Update August 2019

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Greetings once again Monarch Watchers!

This year marks Monarch Watch’s 28th season – wow!

The number of communications we receive can be overwhelming at times (especially this time of year) so we ask for your patience – we are not always able to respond in a timely manner but we do try to address every email, voicemail and letter we receive. We love to hear from you but please be sure to check out all of the information we have online via our Website, Blog, Facebook page, etc. before contacting us with questions. THANK YOU! 🙂

We have a TON of information to share this time around so let’s get right to it. This update includes:

1. Monarch Population Status
2. Western Monarch Population Status
3. Submitting Tag Data for the 2018 Season
4. Monarch Watch Tagging Kits: New tag for 2019!
5. Tagging Wild and Reared Monarchs
6. Chip in for Monarch Watch in 2019!
7. Grant-Sponsored Free Milkweed Programs
8. Monarch Waystations
9. Collect Milkweed Seed for Monarch Watch
10. Monarch Calendar Project
11. Upcoming Monarch Watch Events

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1. Monarch Population Status —by Chip Taylor
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Right now, in most of the breeding area, the prospects for a normal summer and a reasonably robust population look quite good. The exception is the northeast (east of Toronto in Canada, and most of eastern New York, Pennsylvania and north through New England). The colonization of those areas by first generation monarchs was scanty with low temperatures for the first half of June. Further, a colder than normal summer is predicted for most of that region which will retard population development. The migration in the east this fall will be on the low side relative to good years.

As you may already know from previous communications, I partition the annual cycle into 6 stages in an effort to understand the interannual variation in monarch numbers. This stage–specific model breaks down as follows: 1) overwintering (late Oct–early April); 2) return migration through Mexico (late Feb–April); 3) breeding in the US in March and April; 4) recolonization of the regions north of 37N (May–early June); 5) summer breeding north of 37N (June–August); and 6) fall migration (August–Oct). While there is some overlap, each stage is intended to capture the dominant activity during that period.

After Stage 4, I said the overwintering population was likely to be between 4–5 hectares and trending toward 4. Stage 5 recolonization has been excellent with respect to both timing and numbers, with the exception of the northeast. Based on the recolonization data and the long–term temperature forecasts for the Upper Midwest and the north central region, my prediction is that the 2019–2020 overwintering population will be at least 5 hectares and could trend toward 6 hectares if the summer temperatures from 80W (western Pennsylvania) to the west (105W) average at least a degree above the long–term averages. I will summarize the outcome of Stage 5 (June–August) in early September.

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2. Western Monarch Population Status
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Thank you to David James and Gail Morris for providing the following reports.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST
After the lowest overwintering population in California ever recorded, the western monarch population is struggling to bounce back. Numbers of breeding monarchs seen during spring and early summer in California, Oregon, Washington and Idaho have been very low. For example, only 4 confirmed sightings have been made of monarchs in Washington. None have been reported from British Columbia. Normally by now dozens of monarch sightings in Washington and British Columbia would have been reported.

It appears the northward migration from California was sparse and basically petered out by the time it reached the Oregon/Washington state border. The only ‘hotspot’ of monarchs in the Pacific Northwest is in southern Oregon. An estimated 20-30 monarchs have been sighted in this region during the past month or so and we are expecting reasonable numbers there by late August. One citizen scientist reported that a single female that visited her milkweed habitat in Brookings, Oregon laid almost 600 eggs on her milkweed over a period of a few weeks! In contrast, Idaho like Washington has seen just a handful of confirmed monarch sightings so far this season. Monarch status in California is less certain with few reports in central and northern California but an apparent abundance in southern California.

There is still time for a significant population build-up particularly in California and southern Oregon. However, the overwintering population this year is likely to be similarly poor to last year. —Dr. David James, Washington State University

SOUTHWEST
In spring we were worried – would we see any monarchs at all after the dismal overwintering counts in California? Then monarchs began to appear in southern New Mexico and Arizona near the Mexican border and continued to move northward through the region.

The Southwest states all experienced lower than normal temperatures in late winter and spring this year, slowing the spring migration through the region. Both Arizona and New Mexico reported higher than normal spring sightings in the low to mid elevations and many of these appeared to be remigrants from Mexico. Monarchs spending the winter in the lower deserts of California and Arizona were late to leave the areas as well. In fact, Tucson, Arizona was still reporting monarchs in early July despite temperatures above 100 degrees. Monarchs usually appear in the higher elevations above 6,500 to 7,000 feet by early July but none have been reported. A late season snowstorm near Memorial Day may have left its mark on the monarch population, but we are hopeful some will still appear.

Nevada reported monarchs in the Las Vegas area in late March and early April. The first sighting was reported in late April in the Reno area. Monarchs seem to be present in pockets with some areas reporting several and others mainly reporting their absence. In contrast, Utah has more monarch sightings than last year, especially in the Salt Lake City area. There is still more time for the population everywhere to recover before the Fall migration and we are all hopeful.

We are hoping for a low to modest fall migration but there will be monarchs in the area to observe and hopefully tag. —Gail Morris, Southwest Monarch Study

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3. Submitting Tag Data for the 2018 Season
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Thousands of you have already submitted your 2018 season tag data to us by mail or via our online submission form – thank you! We are still receiving datasheets and if you haven’t submitted your data yet it is not too late. Please review the “Submitting Your Tagging Data” information on the tagging program page then send us your data via the Tagging Data Submission Form.

Complete information is available at https://monarchwatch.org/tagging if you have questions about submitting your data to us and we have conveniently placed a large “Submit Tagging Data Here” button on our homepage at https://monarchwatch.org that will take you directly to the online form.

There you can upload your data sheets as an Excel or other spreadsheet file (PREFERRED; download a template file from https://monarchwatch.org/tagging) or a PDF/image file (scan or photo).

If you have any questions about getting your data to us, please feel free to drop Jim a line anytime via JLOVETT@KU.EDU

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4. Monarch Watch Tagging Kits: New tag for 2019!
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If you have tagged monarchs before, you’ll notice that this year’s tags look a little different. We’ve reduced the amount of text on the tag and added a letter to the codes so be sure to record the complete alphanumeric code (four (4) letters followed by three (3) numbers; e.g. AXYZ123). See the new tag layout and all of the 2019 materials by visiting the 2019 Monarch Tagging Program page at https://monarchwatch.org/tagging

Monarch tagging is an important tool to help us understand the overall dynamics of the monarch population. Tags for the 2019 fall tagging season are available and we have started shipping them out, ahead of the migration in your area. If you would like to tag monarchs this year, please order your tags soon as they are going fast! Tagging Kits should arrive within 7-10 days but priority will be given to preorders and areas that will experience the migration first.

Monarch Watch Tagging Kits are only shipped to areas east of the Rocky Mountains. Each tagging kit includes a set of specially manufactured monarch butterfly tags (you specify quantity), a data sheet, tagging instructions, and additional monarch / migration information. Tagging Kits for the 2019 season start at only $15 and include your choice of 25, 50, 100, 200, or 500 tags.

Monarch Watch Tagging Kits and other materials (don’t forget a net!) are available via the Monarch Watch Shop online at https://shop.monarchwatch.org – where each purchase helps support Monarch Watch.

2019 datasheets and instructions are also available online at https://monarchwatch.org/tagging

Tagging should begin in early to mid-August north of 45N latitude (e.g. Minneapolis), late August at other locations north of 35N (e.g., Oklahoma City, Fort Smith, Memphis, Charlotte) and in September and early October in areas south of 35N latitude. See a map and a table with expected peak migration dates at https://monarchwatch.org/tagging

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5. Tagging Wild and Reared Monarchs
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The following is an abbreviated version of our “Tagging wild and reared monarchs: Best practices” article recently posted to our Blog. The complete text of the article is available via https://monarchwatch.org/blog

Over the years, thousands of taggers have contributed to our tagging database. It is an enormous record and a veritable gold mine of information about how the migration functions. The record represents at least 1.8 million tagged butterflies and lists where, when and by whom each butterfly was tagged. The sex of each butterfly and whether the butterfly was wild–caught or reared, tagged and released is also recorded. These data have told us a lot about the migration. Yet, this record could be improved but we need your help. Diving into the data has revealed a number of surprises such as the difference between the probability that a reared monarch will reach Mexico and the probability that a wild–tagged monarch will do so. The recovery rate is higher for wild–caught monarchs (0.9% vs 0.5%) and it is the data from the wild–caught butterflies that tell us the most about the migration. Frankly, for some analyses, we have to set the reared monarch data aside. That doesn’t mean it is not valuable, but its uses are limited.

It should be noted that for tagging data purposes, monarchs captured as adult butterflies should be reported as WILD and adult monarchs reared from the egg, larva, or pupa stage should be considered REARED.

TAGGING WILD-CAUGHT MONARCHS
For wild-caught monarchs we need to:
1. increase the number of taggers from western Minnesota and Iowa westward into Nebraska and the Dakotas to give us a more complete understanding of dynamics of the migration;

2. increase the number of wild monarchs that are tagged since these provide the most valuable data; and

3. increase the number of taggers who tag from the beginning of the tagging season in early August until the migration ends. Tagging records for the entire season will help us establish the proportion of the late–season monarchs that reach the overwintering sites. When tagging wild–caught monarchs, many taggers run out of tags well before the season ends. That’s great, but it would help us to know when all tags had been used by indicating this via the online tagging data submission form.

TAGGING REARED MONARCHS
Reared butterflies tend to average smaller than wild migrants. That difference can be reduced significantly if careful attention is given to rearing larvae under the best possible conditions. Large monarchs have the best chance of reaching Mexico, surviving the winter and reproducing in Texas. There are several reasons for this: better glide ratio, better lift with cross or quartering winds, larger fat bodies, more resistance to stress, etc. There are very few small monarchs among those that return in the spring. For those of you who prefer to rear, tag and release, we have a few suggestions:

1. Rear larvae under the most natural conditions possible.

2. Provide an abundance of living or fresh–picked and sanitized foliage to larvae.

3. Provide clean rearing conditions.

4. Plan the rearing so that the newly–emerged monarchs can be tagged early in the migratory season (10 days before to 10 days after the expected date of arrival of the leading edge of the migration in your area).

5. Tag the butterflies once the wings have hardened and release them the day after emergence if possible.

6. When it comes to tagging, tag only the largest and most–fit monarchs (see complete article for some guidelines). Records of tags applied to monarchs that have little chance of reaching Mexico add to the mass of tagging data, but do not help us learn which monarchs reach Mexico – unless the measurements, weight and condition of every monarch tagged and released is recorded. There are a few taggers who keep such detailed records and those data can be very informative. If you collect such data and are willing to share it please contact us; do not add this information to the standard tagging datasheet.

As a final note, this text is not a directive. We are not telling you what to do; rather, we are simply providing suggestions that may lead to more successful rearing and tagging efforts.

The expanded version of this article “Tagging wild and reared monarchs: Best practices” is available via https://monarchwatch.org/blog

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6. Chip in for Monarch Watch in 2019!
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Several years ago, we launched our first “Chip in for Monarch Watch” Fundraising Campaign in honor of our director and founder, Chip Taylor (who’s birthday happens to be at the end of this month, by the way). This campaign offers a chance for Monarch Watchers, colleagues, friends, and family across the planet to show their support for Chip and the Monarch Watch program he brought to life more than a quarter-century ago. It has provided tremendous support for Monarch Watch over the years, through both monetary contributions and kind words. We encourage you to spend a little time reading through the previous donor comments on the Chip in for Monarch Watch page – the connections that are facilitated by monarchs and Monarch Watch are truly extraordinary.

This year’s Chip in for Monarch Watch campaign is now underway – if you are in a position to offer financial support to Monarch Watch (or know someone who might be), please consider making a fully tax-deductible donation of any amount during our 2019 “Chip in for Monarch Watch” fundraising campaign.

Visit https://monarchwatch.org/chip for more information or to submit your pledge and tax-deductible donation. Please be sure to leave your comments, thanks, birthday wishes, etc. for Chip via the Chip in for Monarch Watch Form at https://form.jotform.com/82141035824146

Thank you for your continued support!

Quick Links:

– Chip in for Monarch Watch: https://monarchwatch.org/chip

– Chip in for Monarch Watch Form (to leave comments, thanks, birthday wishes, etc.):
https://form.jotform.com/82141035824146

– Donate Now via the KU Endowment: http://kuendowment.org/monarch

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7. Grant–Sponsored Free Milkweed Programs
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For complete details about applying for our Free Milkweeds Grants please visit https://monarchwatch.org/free-milkweeds

We are still able to accept about 25 more free milkweeds for schools and nonprofits applications before the grant quota is met. It would be great to have applications from ecoregion 222 (see map at https://monarchwatch.org/milkweed/market).

We have fulfilled our latest grant for distributing 100,000 free milkweeds for restoration projects. This brings the total to over 500,000 free milkweeds since Fall 2015. We are awaiting approval of funding for Spring 2020 grants.

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8. Monarch Waystations
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To offset the loss of milkweeds and nectar sources we need to create, conserve, and protect monarch butterfly habitats. You can help by creating “Monarch Waystations” in home gardens, at schools, businesses, parks, zoos, nature centers, along roadsides, and on other unused plots of land. Creating a Monarch Waystation can be as simple as adding milkweeds and nectar sources to existing gardens or maintaining natural habitats with milkweeds. No effort is too small to have a positive impact.

Have you created a habitat for monarchs and other wildlife? If so, help support our conservation efforts by registering your habitat as an official Monarch Waystation today!

https://monarchwatch.org/waystations

A quick online application will register your site and your habitat will be added to the online registry (mapped location will be approximate for privacy). You will receive a certificate bearing your name and your habitat’s ID that can be used to look up its record. You may also choose to purchase a metal sign to display in your habitat to encourage others to get involved in monarch conservation.

As of 14 July 2019, there have been 25,131 Monarch Waystation habitats registered with Monarch Watch! Texas holds the #1 spot with 2,110 habitats and Illinois (1,948), Michigan (1,845), California (1,609), Ohio (1,276), Virginia (1,202), Pennsylvania (1,120), Florida (1,095), Wisconsin (1,065), and Missouri (797) round out the top ten.

You can view the complete listing and a map of approximate locations via https://monarchwatch.org/waystations/registry

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9. Collect Milkweed Seed for Monarch Watch
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Monarch Watch is seeking donations of milkweed seed collected from wild populations. Our greatest need is for A. incarnata (swamp) and A. tuberosa (butterfly) throughout their ranges; A. syriaca (common) from the northeast; A. viridis (green antelopehorn), A. oenotheroides (zizotes), and A. asperula (antelopehorn) from Texas; and A. speciosa (showy) from Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado.

Please visit our seed collecting page for further instructions: https://monarchwatch.org/bring-back-the-monarchs/milkweed/seed-collecting

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10. Monarch Calendar Project
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If you are recording your monarch observations for this project and would like to submit your data for the spring (1st) period please do so using the appropriate form, based on your location:

For locations SOUTH of (less than) 35N latitude (March 15-April 30, 2019) please use this form: https://forms.gle/dcmxnJGNqqTUwdtKA

For locations NORTH of (greater than) 35N latitude (April1-June 20, 2019) please use this form: https://forms.gle/BU6aqipV49A2krgy5

As soon as the fall period ends for all locations (September 25) we will send out a link for submission of that data.

Monarch Watch continues to seek the assistance of hundreds of monarch enthusiasts (citizen scientists) in collecting observations of monarchs in their area during specific periods of the spring and fall. If you would like to participate, all you have to do is: 1. REGISTER (just so we know where you are located and how to reach you), 2. RECORD (keep a record of the number of monarch butterflies you observe each day during the time period dictated by your location) and 3. SUBMIT (at the end of the observation period in the fall we will send participants a link to an online form to submit their observation data).

Complete details and a link to the short registration form are available at

https://monarchwatch.org/calendar

Please note that the fall observation period for those of you in the Southern U.S. runs from August 1 – September 25 so you need to start recording your monarch observations now! For northern locations (greater than 35N latitude) the fall period runs from July 15 – August 20 so recording should be going on now, but it is not too late to join in!

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11. Upcoming Monarch Watch Events
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Monarch Watch Fall Open House (Free event)
Saturday, September 14, 2019
9am–2pm
Lawrence, Kansas

Join us at our Fall Open House at Foley Hall (KU’s West Campus) to celebrate the arrival of migrating monarchs coming from the north. This free event is designed to please children and adults alike. As usual, we will provide refreshments, lots of show & tell (including a honey bee observation hive, our tarantulas, and white monarchs), tours of our gardens and lab space, hands-on activities, games, videos, monarch tagging demonstrations, and, of course, lots of monarch caterpillars, chrysalises, and butterflies!

Details at https://monarchwatch.org/openhouse

Monarch Watch Tagging Event (Free event)
Saturday, September 21, 2019
8am–12pm
Lawrence, Kansas

This year’s tagging event will once again be held at the Baker Wetlands Discovery Center (1365 N. 1250 Rd. Lawrence, KS 66046).

This free, all-ages, public event is sponsored by Monarch Watch, Jayhawk Audubon Society and the Baker Wetlands Discovery Center. There is no charge to participants and no experience is necessary – we’ll provide tags, nets, instruction, and refreshments.

We’ll post lots of photos via Facebook so if you are not able to join us in person be sure to check them out later in the day.

Complete details at https://monarchwatch.org/tag-event

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About This Monarch Watch List
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Monarch Watch (https://monarchwatch.org) is a nonprofit education, conservation, and research program affiliated with the Kansas Biological Survey at the University of Kansas. The program strives to provide the public with information about the biology of monarch butterflies, their spectacular migration, and how to use monarchs to further science education in primary and secondary schools. Monarch Watch engages in research on monarch migration biology and monarch population dynamics to better understand how to conserve the monarch migration and also promotes the protection of monarch habitats throughout North America.

We rely on private contributions to support the program and we need your help! Please consider making a tax-deductible donation. Complete details are available at https://monarchwatch.org/donate or you can simply call 785-832-7374 (KU Endowment Association) for more information about giving to Monarch Watch.

If you have any questions about this email or any of our programs, please feel free to contact us anytime.

Thank you for your continued interest and support!

Jim Lovett
Monarch Watch
https://monarchwatch.org

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