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Contents:

1) Welcome!

2) Monarchs Right On Time

3) Number of Spring Monarchs

4) Spring Observations - Very Important

5) Order Processing and Fulfillment Has Changed

6) Taggers Wanted for Fall 2002

7) Attention All 2001 Taggers

8) New Site Design

9) How to Unsubscribe from this Update

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1) Welcome to Monarch Watch's Update List!

You are receiving this email because you have provided Monarch Watch with your email address at some point and expressed interest in receiving updates from us. If you do not wish to receive these periodic (probably monthly) email updates or feel that you were subscribed in error, please see the unsubscribe information at the end of this message.

Have you somehow missed (or misplaced ;-) an update? Now you can find all of the updates archived online at

http://www.MonarchWatch.org/update

If you know someone that you think might be interested in receiving these email updates from Monarch Watch with monarch news, special announcements, tips on raising monarchs in your classroom, monarch tagging information and a whole lot more, please send them on over to

http://www.MonarchWatch.org/signup

to join our new Monarch-Watch-Update email list - it's easy!

Monarch Watch (http://www.MonarchWatch.org) is a not-for-profit educational outreach program based at the University of Kansas. We run a Monarch tagging program and offer Monarch Rearing Kits, Monarch Tagging Kits, and other educational/promotional materials that allow you to actively experience the monarch life cycle and its spectacular fall migration.If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us anytime!

Your friends at Monarch Watch
http://www.MonarchWatch.org
monarch@ku.edu

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2) Monarchs Right On Time

The arrival of monarchs from Mexico each spring appears to be quite predictable, which raises issues as to why this might be the case. In most years, monarchs are reported in South Texas toward the end of the first week of March; by the 15th some are usually seen in Austin; and by the 24th, near Dallas. Are monarchs tracking the increasing altitude angle of the sun, the emergence of milkweed, or a peak in spring bloom across latitudes? Or, are they simply flowing N, NE and E as the weather allows? These are interesting questions and we can’t provide the rationale and evidence for each of these possibilities here but we will offer a couple of observations. First, with regard to altitude angle (AA, the angle of the sun above the horizon at noon), if monarchs are tracking an AA of 56 degrees as they appear to be doing in the fall, the first monarchs would be expected on the following dates and latitudes: 10 March, 26N (McAllen ,TX); 17 March, 29N (San Antonio, TX); 19 March, 30N (Austin, TX); 25 March, 32N (Dallas, TX); 1 April, 36N (Oklahoma City, OK); 9 April, 38N (Lawrence, KS). If you have been following the postings Mike Quinn has made to Dplex-L (http://www.MonarchWatch.org/dplex) this past month, you will recognize that the arrival dates throughout Texas are close to these predicted arrivals.

Another view is that since monarchs need nectar and milkweed for oviposition as they move north, they track the blooming flowers and emerging milkweed. In Kansas and Minnesota, milkweeds usually break ground coincident with the peak in the bloom of fruit trees. For Kansas, this is around the 15th of April and for Minnesota it is close to the 15th of May. The AA for Lawrence, KS is 58 degrees on the 15th of April and 61 degrees for St Paul on May 15th. (The monarchs arriving in MN in May are offspring of monarchs that overwintered in Mexico and their movement north appear to follow a different AA). In years in which the jet stream is shifted to the north these dates are close to those on which monarchs are first reported in these cities. Even if this is the general trend, the size of the returning monarch population and the proximate weather patterns can determine what we see at a given latitude. In years when the population is low or when the jet stream lies over the mid west in April, monarchs do not make a conspicuous appearance in Kansas in April.

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3) Number of Spring Monarchs

In last month’s update we estimated that 2.5-3.5 hectares (27-37%) of the original 9.35 hectares of butterflies survived the severe January storm. Last year the total overwintering population was estimated to be 2.83 hectares and this number was much diminished by late season storms. Therefore, we would expect the number of early season sightings to be larger than last spring at this time. In fact, the numbers of monarchs reported in the first three weeks of this season exceed the numbers reported for this period in each of the previous four years. This can be verified by comparing the reporting maps posted on Journey North (http://www.learner.org/jnorth) through the 28th of March each year. The geographic distribution of the reports this year is similar to that of 2000 except that at the same time that year the butterflies were somewhat further north and there were more sightings to the east of Texas. The number of reports this year may be due in part to the excellent postings to Dplex-L by Mike Quinn. Mike has established a substantial network of observers throughout Texas and these collaborators have furnished Mike with a stream of monarch sightings from coastal, central and northern Texas. However, the number of sightings seems to be more than a matter of good reporting since several long-time observers reported seeing more monarchs this year than during comparable periods in the past. All of this is good news but the recovery of the population is more than the number of adults seen in the spring. We have to consider the conditions for reproduction as well.

Spring Conditions

In general, the conditions this spring do not appear to be as favorable for monarch reproduction as they were last year at this time. Last year there was an abundance of soil moisture through most of Texas and importantly the fire ants were down due to the extensive droughts of the previous three years. This year drought and near drought conditions prevail in South and Southwest Texas but near normal soil moisture, and therefore plant growth, dominates most of the rest of the state. Nectar plants and milkweeds should not be in short supply over the major breeding areas in the state. However, there is another factor - fire ants. Fire ants are generalized predators and they feed on the eggs and larvae of many insects including monarchs. According to Bart Drees of the Fire Ant Project at Texas A&M (http://fireant.tamu.edu), fire ants are beginning to increase once again in many areas of Texas. This increase is not universal and the pattern is very heterogeneous, but it does appear that fire ants will be more of a factor in limiting the growth of the monarch population than they were last year. The portion of Texas most used by most used by monarchs for breeding in March and April overlaps the distribution of fire ants:

http://fireant.tamu.edu/maps/futureinfest.jpg

http://www.aphis.usda.gov/ppq/maps/

As the season progresses drought may be a factor in other parts of the country as well. At present, most of the east coast from the Carolinas to Maine is experiencing drought and near drought conditions. To keep up with the conditions as they develop through the season visit:

http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/monitor.html (updated weekly)

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html (for seasonal predictions)

http://www.txwin.net/Monitoring/Meteorological/Drought/pdsi.htm (for Texas)

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4) Spring Observations - Very Important

Due to the recent mortality of monarchs in Mexico, reports of the numbers of larvae and or adults in the springtime are critical in documenting long-term effects of this kind of event. There are several ways in which you can participate.

The Monarch Larva Monitoring Project

The MLMP is based at the University of Minnesota. In this "citizen science project" volunteers collect data on monarch and milkweed populations, and share their data with scientists and the public. The main participation requirement is an interest in monarch ecology and an enthusiasm for learning more! Volunteers choose a site with milkweed to monitor; sites may include backyards, gardens, natural areas, old fields, agricultural fields, or roadsides. Monitoring takes about 2-3 hours per week.

For questions, comments, or to sign up, contact Karen Oberhauser at karen@mlmp.org or visit http://www.mlmp.org/

Journey North

Journey North tracks the monarch migration each year by collecting sightings of the FIRST monarch butterfly an observer sees in the spring. A migration map is produced every week, providing a "live" snapshot of the migration as it progresses. In addition to reporting your first adult monarch, please report the first monarch eggs you see on milkweed. (When you see monarch eggs, you'll know monarchs have arrived in your region!)

To report first monarchs, please visit http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/jn-sightings

Mapping the Monarch Migration

Add your observations to help map the Monarch migration as it passes through the U.S. at

http://www.kancrn.org/monarch/wave/

Dplex-L Email Discussion List

Reports of the migration by subscribers allow many students and teachers to follow the migration before, during and after their tagging. Many spectacular observations of the migration have been made by Monarch Watchers in previous years. Subscribers also post questions, provide useful tips and tricks on the use of Monarchs in classrooms and report news of meetings and conservation efforts. Following reports to the list is a good way to learn much more about Monarchs. Presently there are more than 500 subscribers from 11 countries on Dplex-L; however, we need more of you to join in, so...

To learn more about Dplex, please visit http://www.MonarchWatch.org/dplex

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5) Order Processing and Fulfillment Has Changed

Monarch Watch is first and foremost an educational outreach program. Several years ago we began selling various promotional and educational items in an effort to generate additional financial support. As Monarch Watch has grown, the time necessary to maintain this aspect of the program has also grown; in fact, it now takes a large portion of two full-time positions to manage inventory, enter and fill orders, and provide customer support. Unfortunately, this is preventing us from accomplishing many of our education-oriented goals. Additionally, we simply cannot provide the level of service that today's web-savvy customers demand (quick order turnaround, regular phone support, etc.) - we just do not have the resources available to do this.

This dilemma was really the driving force behind our decision to partner with HomeEarth last summer. Out of this partnership "Gulliver's Gift Shop" was born, an online storefront (mail, phone, and fax orders are also taken) that carries all of our Monarch Watch items in addition to lots of other nature-related items. Everyone benefits from this relationship - we are able to offer more products that we could possibly do on our own, HomeEarth manages inventory, processes orders and payments, and will soon inventory and ship everything as well. "Monarch Watchers" will have more ordering, payment, and shipping options and also have access to regular customer support.

This will greatly simplify things and free up a lot of our time so that we can concentrate on our educational goals.

Online ordering (and/or browsing of the full "catalog") at Gulliver's Gift Shop may be done at

http://shop.monarchwatch.org

Offline orders may be mailed, phoned, or faxed to Gulliver's Gift Shop at:

MonarchWatch@HomeEarth.com
3515 Silverside Road, Suite 203
Wilmington, DE 19810
toll-free phone - (800) 780-9986
toll-free fax - (866) 250-6065

If you have any questions about this, please feel free to contact Gulliver's Gift Shop customer support at

MonarchWatch@HomeEarth.com or (800) 780-9986

or drop us a line at monarch@ku.edu or (888) 824-4464.

Thank you for your continued support!

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6) Taggers Wanted for Fall 2002

We want to remind you to order tags now!

We have run out of tags the last two seasons, but we cannot afford to process more than the 250,000 tags we distribute each fall. So, in order to guarantee that you will receive the number of tags you want, we need you to place your orders before May 31, 2002. Orders received after that date will be filled in the order that they are received so there is a chance that we will not have tags available for last minute requests that come in during August and September.

Head on over to Gulliver's Gift Shop and order your 2002 Tagging Membership and additional tags today!

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7) Attention All 2001 Taggers

Recently we've been notified by some of our taggers that they don't need certificates for their 2001 season recoveries. If you would rather not receive certificates, please let us know by emailing Sarah at sjschmidt@ku.edu. Please include your full name in the body of the message. Thanks!

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8) New Site Design

The Monarch Watch website is quietly going through a long-overdue revision. Many of the changes that are being made are in response to the feedback that we have already received via the short feedback form at

http://www.MonarchWatch.org/sitesurvey

Please take a moment let us know what you think about the current site and changes you feel need to be made. We will implement as many of your suggestions as possible and hope to have the new site online sometime before the fall.

If you would prefer to just send an email telling us what you think, please place "New Site Design" in the subject and send it to

jlovett@ku.edu

Thanks!

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9) How to Unsubscribe from this Update

If you would like to be removed from this Monarch Watch Update mailing list, please send an email message to

Listproc@ku.edu

and include in the body of the message (no other text):

UNSUBSCRIBE MONARCH-WATCH-UPDATE

If you have any questions about this, please feel free to contact us anytime.

Thanks!

Monarch Watch
http://www.MonarchWatch.org
monarch@ku.edu