The following table provides a general guideline for when good numbers of monarchs should be observed at each latitude. These predictions are derived from reports to Monarch Watch, first-hand observations and the records of thousands of tagged butterflies that have been recovered over the years. The migration record at specific locations for any given year may differ from this overall pattern but it has proven to be remarkably consistent when viewed as a large-scale phenomenon. As such, it has a phenology and it's predictable. Notice that we have used midpoint as a predicted date rather than a mean. We don't have enough information on the flow of the migration to generate a mean. Further, the distribution of the migrants appears not to be a normal bell-shaped curve but a curve that is shifted strongly to the left. Hence, when estimating the time of peak abundance below we have used a 12-day interval with 7 days before the midpoint and 4 days after the midpoint.
As mentioned above, this is a general pattern. It is likely to be modified by weather patterns that retard, such as strong southwesterly winds, or advance the migration, such as a series of rapidly moving cold fronts arriving from the northwest. Similarly, the pattern of the migration is likely to be modified along the coasts due to strong head winds or storms that have the effect of sweeping monarchs toward the coast on the backside of fronts.
Here's a challenge. If you are outdoors during much of the migration, why not keep a notebook and record the number of monarchs you see each day to see who well these general predictions fit your area this year? If you don't know your latitude, you can look it up quickly by typing your location into "How Far Is it?"
You can also use Google to find your latitude by entering your city, state and the word latitude, like
"Lawrence, KS latitude" (without the quotes)
Midpoints and peaks of the migration by latitude.
|Latitude||Midpoint||Peak in monarch abundance|
|49||26 August||18-30 August|
|47||1 September||24 August - 5 September|
|45||6 September||29 August - 10 September|
|43||11 September||3 - 15 September|
|41||16 September||8 - 20 September|
|39||22 September||14-26 September|
|37||27 September||19 September - 1 October|
|35||2 October||24 September - 6 October|
|33||7 October||29 September - 11 October|
|31||12 October||4-16 October|
|29||18 October||10-22 October|
|27||23 October||15-27 October|
|25||28 October||20 October - 1 November|
|23||4 November||27 October - 8 November|
|21||11 November||3-15 November|
|19.4*||18 November||10-22 November|
*This latitude represents the general vicinity of the overwintering colonies. The monarch colony at El Rosario is usually opened to the public around the 18th of November.
Monarch Watch (888) TAGGING - or - (785) 864-4441