Cardenolide Fingerprinting -- Mexico or Not?

[Mona Miller]

Mona Miller wrote:

> http://www.learner.org/jnorth/images/gr ... 70897.html
> in 1997 they were there in March in the A. syriaca zone.

Paul Cherubini wrote: In March 1997 no monarchs were reported in the syriaca zone until March 27 when one was seen in Tennesee and then a few more were seen March 30:
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/jn-query-bymonth
So in 1997 the first eggs were laid around March 27-30 instead of April 6-8 like this year. So that would knock the dates the adults emerged from their chrysalids back to the 2nd week in May instead of the 3rd like this year, but a May 10 emergence date is still too late to have them show up in Lincoln Brower's Sweet Briar, Virginia yard during the period May 5-18, 1997. Plus Lincoln didn't say he saw any newly emerged brightly colored monarchs.
Therefore Lincoln Brower is justified in assuming that 28 of the 29 faded and worn monarchs with the syriaca cardenolide fingerprint he caught in Sweet Briar, Virginia May 5-18, 1997 had remigrated from the overwintering sites in Mexico. Paul Cherubini El Dorado, Calif.

Continuing a debate of a story that is always half told with significant points left out:

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/west ... ssage/3701
The rest of the story can be found on the Western Monarch List Serve (just scroll down, if you are interested).

First, look at the map for Asclepias syriaca, it is locate almost at the bottom of the web page:
http://www.bonap.org/BONAPmaps2010/Asclepias.html
Maps of county locations of Asclepias in the United States
Are these all the locations of A. syriaca? No, they are not. There are patches of common milkweed in almost every gulf state, except Texas and Florida. Many, many sources have been selling seeds for ages. Many, many people have been planting them for Monarchs.

Second, this was Journey North's first year and your url that you posted didn't even take people to the data.
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/j ... ?891885033
3/26 in NC
But, considering this is Journey North's first year I would suspect that all the Monarchs flying through the south would not be posted to the sightings. I think the same thing is happening now. Not all the Monarchs flying through the south will be posted to Journey North.

I do agree that there are Monarchs coming from Mexico in April through May and this was documented by a Mexican tagged Monarch being found NY. Source: Dr. James Scott, "The Butterflies of North America, A Natural History and Field Guide", look on page: 231.

But, there are just too many variables from year to year to assume that most of them came from Mexico by using cardenolide fingerprinting (chemical signature). Why don't I think that most of them came from Mexico? I think this because there are several locations along the gulf coast and other east coast areas where Monarchs are known to over winter. This also varies from year to year depending on how cold it gets in the winter. There is also time for Monarchs to finish a first cycle on common milkweed further south and get to Virginia by May 5-18.

[Paul Cherubini]

[b]Mona Miller wrote:
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/j ... ?891885033
3/26 in NC

But, there are just too many variables from year to year to assume that most of them came from Mexico by using cardenolide fingerprinting (chemical signature). Why don't I think that most of them came from Mexico? I think this because there are several locations along the gulf coast and other east coast areas where Monarchs are known to over winter.

The 3/26 sighting in central NC was east of the syriaca growing zone so it doesn't count.

There are no overwintering colonies along the Gulf or other east coast areas (places where the butterflies are reliably clustered in Jan & Feb each year), so the number of overwintering monarchs has to be miniscule in relation to the numbers overwintering in Mexico. I searched hard for colonies myself between Tampa, Florida and Alabama one winter and found no trace, even on a few offshore islands. Also, out of the hundreds of thousands of monarchs tagged in the New England and Great Lakes States over the past 60 years, none have been recaptured alive in Jan-March along the Gulf or Allantic coasts to my knowledge, which is an additional indication that there isn't hardly any overwintering as compared to the numbers overwintering in Mexico.

[Mona Miller]

[b]Mona Miller wrote:
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/j ... ?891885033
3/26 in NC

But, there are just too many variables from year to year to assume that most of them came from Mexico by using cardenolide fingerprinting (chemical signature). Why don't I think that most of them came from Mexico? I think this because there are several locations along the gulf coast and other east coast areas where Monarchs are known to over winter.

The 3/26 sighting in central NC was east of the syriaca growing zone so it doesn't count.

There are no overwintering colonies along the Gulf or other east coast areas (places where the butterflies are reliably clustered in Jan & Feb each year), so the number of overwintering monarchs has to be miniscule in relation to the numbers overwintering in Mexico. I searched hard for colonies myself between Tampa, Florida and Alabama one winter and found no trace, even on a few offshore islands. Also, out of the hundreds of thousands of monarchs tagged in the New England and Great Lakes States over the past 60 years, none have been recaptured alive in Jan-March along the Gulf or Allantic coasts to my knowledge, which is an additional indication that there isn't hardly any overwintering as compared to the numbers overwintering in Mexico.

Dr. Urquhart with all the research that he did said there are two populations. One is considered nomadic and continues breeding during the winter. The other migrates to Mexico. Perhaps the year that you were looking for Monarchs the numbers were low or you just didn't look the right place. Dr. Urquhart actually said that he thought the numbers that were nomadic were greater than the colony in Mexico. Just because you decide it can't happen doesn't mean it can't happen.

The sightings that are posted to Journey North are only a drop in a huge bucket of Monarchs out in the wild.

[Paul Cherubini]

Dr. Urquhart with all the research that he did said there are two populations. One is considered nomadic and continues breeding during the winter. The other migrates to Mexico. Dr. Urquhart actually said that he thought the numbers that were nomadic were greater than the colony in Mexico.

"considered nomadic and continues breeding during the winter" is correct, but this population doesn't breed on syriaca milkweed during the winter, hence the only reasonable explanation as to why Dr. Lincoln Brower found that 28 of 29 faded monarchs he captured in Sweet Briar, Virginia May 5-18, 1997 had the fingerprint of syriaca is that they overwintered in Mexico.

Hundreds of enthusiasts besides me have been on the lookout for overwintering colonies along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and none have been found, hence the only reasonable explanation is the colonies don't exist.

[Mona Miller]

PLUS the Asclepias syriaca map that you have outlined goes further south.

http://www.bonap.org/BONAPmaps2010/Asclepias.html
Maps of county locations of Asclepias in the United States

http://www.bonap.org/MapKey.html
This is the color key.

As I said before, A. syriaca grows further south.

[Paul Cherubini]

PLUS the Asclepias syriaca map that you have outlined goes further south.
http://www.bonap.org/BONAPmaps2010/Asclepias.html
Maps of county locations of Asclepias in the United States
As I said before, A. syriaca grows further south.

The Monarch Watch and BONAP maps look virtually identical to me. See them side by side below. Both maps show no significant amount of syriaca grows in the wild south of Kansas, Missouri, Tennesee or far western North Carolina.


The amount of syriaca growing in residential gardens in the deep South is too trivially small to alter anything, just like the amount of tropical currassavica milkweed growing in residential gardens in the northern States in the summer months is too trivially small to alter the fact that 84-92% of the monarchs at the overwintering sites in Mexico have the cardenolide fingerprint of syriaca.

[Mona Miller]

All the states in Green have Asclepias syriaca.

http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/j ... 1302439299
Common Milkweed in Atlanta on 3/21 (Georgia)
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/j ... 1301409826
Common Milkweed in Madison on 3/23 (Georgia)

Plus, many individuals and schools are growing common milkweed.

Monarch Watch has been distributing tags and seed since around 1992.
http://www.monarchwatch.org/about/index.htm
"Since its inception in 1992, Monarch Watch has evolved into an electronically-based program with an award-winning website, an active e-mail discussion list, and a growing online community forum. The program involves more than 2,000 schools, nature centers, and other organizations in the United States and Canada, and we estimate 100,000+ students and adults participate in tagging activities each fall."

I think Monarch Watch probably reaches more schools and individuals than is stated above.

The Asclepias syriaca zone theory is not solid.

[Paul Cherubini]

http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/j ... 1302439299
Common Milkweed in Atlanta on 3/21 (Georgia)
http://www.learner.org/cgi-bin/jnorth/j ... 1301409826
Common Milkweed in Madison on 3/23 (Georgia)
Plus, many individuals and schools are growing common milkweed.
I think Monarch Watch probably reaches more schools and individuals than is stated above.
The Asclepias syriaca zone theory is not solid.

Only mere hundreds or 1000's of residential gardeners and schools are growing syriaca milkweed in the States south of Kansas, Missouri and Tennesee. Hence only mere hundreds or 1000's of new monarchs are produced by early May on this syriaca milkweed. Meanwhile, tens of millions of overwintered monarchs from Mexico move through this region in March and April. Thus, mathematically, the wild overwintered monarchs from Mexico outnumber the early spring home garden produced monarchs by a factor of very roughly 20,000 to 1 - not hardly enough to alter Lincoln Browers view that the reason 28 of 29 faded monarchs he sampled May 5-18, 1997 had the fingerprint of syriaca was because they had remigrated from the overwintering sites in Mexico.

[Mona Miller]

It's still a theory. It is not confirmed.

[blazing star]

[b]I searched hard for colonies myself between Tampa, Florida and Alabama one winter and found no trace, even on a few offshore islands.

I thought you found "abundant" monarchs over your toxic GM Farmlands?! lol