Monarch Population Status

[Mona Miller]

http://monarchwatch.org/blog/2011/04/mo ... status-10/
Monarch Population Status
Tuesday, April 26th, 2011 at 10:13 am by Chip Taylor

[Paul Cherubini]

I don't understand the doom and gloom about the prospects for a good population buildup this summer.
The pace of the spring migration this season seems about the same as compared to 1997 http://i959.photobucket.com/albums/ae78 ... looper.jpg
The fall migration in 1997 was large so why couldn't it be large this coming summer?

Also, in the past (e.g. 1993) there have been some large fall migrations even though the summer weather was much colder than normal.

Anyway, I will be visiting central and northern Minnesota the first week in August and I fully expect to be able to photograph migrating, clustering and gregariously nectaring monarchs in abundance up near the Canadian border around Aug. 5-7.

[Mona Miller]

You never do understand. Most of the time you criticize, complain, and find fault. You spread misinformation all over the world. So what's new.

[Paul Cherubini]

The pace of this years spring migration was similar to the 1997 and 2006 spring migrations. And in 2006 there were drought conditions and hot temperatures in Texas in March and April just like this year. But here's what happened in the fall of 1997 and 2006:

http://www.news.ku.edu/1997/97N/AugNews ... archs.html
"We expect a fabulous migration through Kansas this year [1997]," Taylor says. "The numbers of adult monarchs reported from around the country have been astonishing.”

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/aug/2 ... pear_soon/
When the fluttering insects head south for the winter, it'll be one of the biggest parades in years, predicts Chip Taylor. "It's going to be one of the bigger populations we've seen this decade," Taylor said of the fall [2006] migration.

[Mona Miller]

I remember your prediction for the Western over wintering colony. You said it would fail again, but it didn't. Why do you have to keep one upping or putting down every Monarch scientist that I know?

[Paul Cherubini]

On a 1997 Journey North web page Dr. Lincoln Brower said:

""Monarch Watch messages coming in from numerous observers east of the Rocky Mountains indicate that the monarchs are moving northward on their spring remigration back into the USA much earlier this year (1997) than is normal. I believe that this is ominous for the following reasons: http://www.learner.org/jnorth/1997/crit ... 42297.html

And yet by the fall of 1997 everyone observed a very large migration.