A similar worrisome situation occurred in April 1996. Here is Dr. Lincoln Brower's April 22, 1996 report about the a spot in northern Florida where he describes a "dismal monarch return this spring" and says "we could be in for a precipitously low fall migration."http://www.learner.org/jnorth/www/critt ... 15589.html
Then based on a June 18, 1996 census in Wisconsin, Dr. Brower told a reporter: "the fall migration may be down by as much as 80%"http://www.learner.org/jnorth/www/critt ... 55578.html
Exactly the opposite happened. The fall migration of 1996 was spectacular almost beyond belief. Here is how Dr. Chip Taylor described it in his 1996 Season Summary:
"Best in 5 years? Best in 10 years? Best in 20 years? In a word, the fall migration was AWESOME!!! This was certainly the most spectacular migration in the five year history of Monarch Watch, and several long time Monarch observers suggested this was the best migration in 20 years."