Killer storm in Mexico: 2/5/2010

[Mona Miller]

This was posted to the dplex mailing list. Not good news:

Report from Mexico Draft, Lincoln Brower, 4 February 2010.

First killing winter storm for the 2009-2010 overwintering season. I am just off the phone (4:30PM EST) with colleagues in Mexico 4 February 2010. Pablo Span visited the Pelon colony when it was not raining on Tuesday 2 January and said there were more (presumably dead) monarch butterflies on the ground that he had ever before seen. Pablo reports that the local Peon guards told him that there are two colonies on Pelon, one called Carditos and the other La Costera. . According to our student, Raul Zubieta, there was a major winter storm occurring on the Sierra Chincua on Monday 1 February and that this likely has caused major mortality in all the colonies.

Second killer storm. Pablo also told me that very severe weather is currently impacting the whole area. At 6 AM on Wednesday 3 February heavy rain began falling and it is still raining at 5 PM on 4 February. He measured the rain on 3 February at the hotel at 3.5 inches. As of 740 PM 4 Feb, so far 15 inches of rain have fallen since Monday. Two groups of tourists attempted to visit the butterflies at Rosario today (4 Feb). The first group succeeded, but the second did not because a bridge between Ocampo and Rosario washed out. Pablo also said that the main highway bridge on Route 15 through Tuxpan washed out. LPB tried calling Mitzi Mancilla in Tuxpan but could not get through. Pablo also said that a colleague who lives near Crescencio Morales (located at the southern end of the Sierra Campanario – Rosario is at the northern end) reported serious flooding. The ejido Crescencio Morales has been illegally and massively clear cut in the past 4 years. It is likely that the erosion of the now barren former Oyamel forest area is extensive. Another colleague in Angangueo reported frightening rain for 48 hours and still raining as of noon 4 Feb. and that a house fell down killing three children. "Little we can do…..".

Check out the Angangueo weather report at :
http://mx.weather.yahoo.com/m%C3%A9xico ... eo-112150/
The satellite image for 4 Feb (3:10 GMT) indicates that there is a storm crossing Mexico that is very similar to the January 2002 winter storm that killed 80% of the butterflies, Yesterday (3 Feb 2010) the above weather web site predicted a low of 1 degree C on Saturday, 5 February 2010. Today (4 Feb) it predicts a low of 0 degrees C. In Brower et al. (2004) we estimated that the Chincua Station temperature hit a low of -4.4 on the morning of 14 January 2002 This was 4.2 degrees colder than Angangueo. Given the unprecedented heavy rains, the monarchs in their clusters are likely soaking wet. If it hits -5 C in the colony, we can expect a mortality of up to 80% as occurred immediately following the 2002 storm. Tonight and tomorrow morning 5 February 2010 could be a serious killing event for all the monarchs overwintering in Mexico.

Reference:
Brower, L.P., Kust, D.R., Rendon-Salinas, E., Serrano, E.G., Kust, K.R., Miller, J., Fernandez del Rey, C., & Pape, K. (2004). Catastrophic winter storm mortality of monarch butterflies in Mexico during January 2002. In The Monarch Butterfly. Biology and Conservation (eds K.S. Oberhauser & M.J. Solensky), pp. 151-166. Cornell University Press, Ithaca.

[Paul Cherubini]

Report from Mexico Draft, Lincoln Brower, 4 February 2010.
The satellite image for 4 Feb (3:10 GMT) indicates that there is a storm crossing Mexico that is very similar to the January 2002 winter storm that killed 80% of the butterflies

There was alot of worry about that 80% kill back in Jan. 2002, yet normal numbers of monarchs returned to the Sanctuaries 10 months later: http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/storm.jpg

[Mona Miller]

http://www.learner.org/jnorth/monarch/s ... 20410.html
Read the update on Journey North.

http://www.learner.org/jnorth/tm/monarc ... Graph.html
Look at the size of the colony before the winter storm in 2002. This years estimation is only 1.92 hectares.

[Paul Cherubini]

In Jan 2002, if 80% of the 9.6 hectares worth of monarchs died, it left only 1.92 hectares worth of surviving butterfies, yet 7.5 hectares worth of monarchs returned the following autumn.

If 50% of this winters 1.92 hectares worth of monarchs died it would leave .96 hectares worth of survivors and potentially 3.75 hectares worth of monarchs could return in the autumn. The latest report from Carole Jordan is that the Chincua colony survived the storm which means some others probably did too.

I personally believe the 1.92 hectare count for this season is an underestimate due to WWF not searching all the mountain ranges hard enough to find colonies. One odd thing that happened in the spring of 2002, after the 80% kill that winter, is that Chris Durden in Austin, Texas reported seeing the largest spring migration of monarchs in Austin that he had ever seen in many decades of observing! This could be another subtle clue that some winter colonies in Mexico were located in undiscovered locations.

[Mona Miller]

Eight years since the 2002 die off. You can't multiply to get the numbers when there is so much more involved besides Monarchs mating. Right now, there are still several weeks left before they remigrate.

[Mona Miller]

******************************************************
Monarch Update: February 11, 2010
******************************************************
Last week's disaster in Mexico's monarch butterfly region continues to be our focus and concern. Students can send moral support by writing letters. Those who want to send financial support can contribute to Journey North's fundraising drive as described below. In the days ahead, we expect to hear how the severe weather affected the monarch butterflies. Scientists are concerned to know whether the forests provided adequate protection.

This Week's Update Includes:
* How You Can Help
* About the Disaster in Angangueo

This Week's Update is Also on the Journey North Website:
http://www.learner.org/jnorth/monarch/s ... 21110.html

[Judy Molnar]

Dear all,
The following emails are from 2 Monarch Teacher Network leaders who are in Mexico leading trips to the overwintering sites. This is their updates sent to me 2-13-2010, which they gave me permission to post. Irrelevant bits deleted. I was greatly releived to get these!

Hi Judy,

I am in Mexico. We completed the first trip last night and I pick up our second group today. While we have been unable to access El Rosario because of road issues, as far as i can tell the monarchs survived the storm largely intact. We had a great visit to Chincua but were unable to visit Rosario as the road there may be out of commission for a month. On Thursday we had the most extraordinary school visit ever. This trip included students and families while the one coming up is all teachers and educators. [SNIP]
Erik

Buenas Dias and Hello,

Many of you know there was a big storm last week in Michoacan and the area of the butterfly colonies. We want to report that as far as we can tell, the butterflies are ok. We have been able to visit the Sierra Chincua colony (yesterday) and the butterflies were spectacular. Because of road damage in the area we have had to juggle the schedule of our group activities but for the most part we are doing everything we normally do. We`re enjoying our trip traveling through Michoacan. Some trees down and there is rushing water damage to trails but Chincua is essentially ok. El Rosario road access is badly damaged. We probably can't get to Rosario this trip but otherwise our schedule is fine and people are having a great time. We´re on our way to Patzcuaro today. While the ground is far wetter than I've ever seen it... as it continues to dry out and drain.... we've seen very little real destruction to property in our travels, from the storm..... [SNIP].

Perhaps 50% of the people who would normally be at Sierra Chincua are over at Rosario working with folks at that ejido to help repair the road. The roads in Angangueo and Ocampo are so bad that folks from the Chincua colony have to walk several hours through the forest to get to Chincua colony... they cannot drive over the mt. But from the direction our bus came, we saw no problems.

One positive note to the storm for us has been that all the rain from the storm washed out the air pollution that is so much a part of Mexico City. As a result, we had the most fantastic views of the two major volcanoes that tower over Mexico City, Popocateptl and Iztakcihuatl... the Smoking Mt and White Woman. They were completely covered in snow and were absolutely stunning, following us everywhere we went, including grande views of them from Shrine of Gualoupe [sp.].

Erik Mollenhauer and Brian Hayes

[Mona Miller]

Thank you for posting this information. I've been reading many posts like this on the Monarch Teacher Network yahoo group. All are welcome to join this group (you don't have to be a teacher).

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/MTNonline/
Monarch Teacher Network Group
"Description
This is your space! Please feel free to ask questions, post resources and share ideas.
~"If it takes a village to raise a child, perhaps it takes a butterfly to bring that village together."..."

[Judy Molnar]

Howdy all
The Journey North site is following the aftermath of the flooding in Mexico because they are in contact with a family that lives there as well as folks who are studying the overwintering monarchs. The floods have brought home the message to the locals about the consequences of local deforestation. Explore the web page: http://www.learner.org/jnorth/monarch/s ... 22510.html

You don't have to be a teacher to subscribe to the Journey North updates, just hit the "home" link and they will show you how. The only problem is you will get ALL migration updates, not just the monarch ones, if you register and sign up. But that's OK, you learn a lot about migrating creatures that way!
Judy Molnar

[Mona Miller]

You are right. I signed up for updates and I get them all. I've been using Journey North for over 7 years. I love getting the reports about the Mexican people and their Monarchs. You can also follow the growth of milkweed, laying of eggs and sightings of caterpillars.

I can't wait for Spring and the butterflies to return.