Monarch Population Status

[Mona Miller]

http://monarchwatch.org/blog/2012/08/mo ... status-17/

Monday, August 20th, 2012 at 5:12 pm by Chip Taylor

In early July I wrote the text for the pre-migration newsletter that goes out with the tagging kits in which I stated that there was no real basis for making a prediction about the size of the fall migratory population:

“If there is sufficient rainfall and normal to above normal temperatures in the northern breeding range through August, the migratory population may be the largest since 2003 – perhaps 6-7 hectares. On the other hand, a continuation of the extreme heat and drought conditions could result in another overwintering population in the 2-3 hectare range – well below the long-term average of 7 hectares.”

It is now clear that fall population will be on the low side with an overwintering population close to 3 hectares once again. I don’t need to tell you that the summer was hot and dry – too hot and dry in many areas for good monarch reproduction. We have received many comments on the poor quality of the milkweed available to monarchs for the last generation. In eastern Kansas, where the drought ranges from extreme to exceptional, milkweeds, even blue vine (Cynanchum laeve), suitable for egg laying, are scarce. The best areas for the production of fall migrants appear to be northwest and central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan, and much of New England. Reports from New England suggest that the number of monarchs passing through Cape May will be higher than normal this fall. Elsewhere, we can expect the number of fall migrants to be similar to that seen over the last several years.

The low number of nectar sources that will be available to monarchs moving through the lower Midwest in September is a concern. Some fall flowers have already bloomed, some have died and many of the others are stunted and just barely alive. There will be nectar but it will be harder for the monarchs to find. Rain in the areas of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas, and Illinois over the next three weeks could make a big difference in the proportion of the fall migrants that reach Mexico.

[blazing star]

We virtually lost all of our milkweed in our restored 5 acre prairie, due to drought. The good news is that it has been raining with very small rain events (usually 1/10 of an inch). Then, it rain about 3/4 of an inch and we went to check if things were making a come back. Indeed they were. We saw flowers blooming of plants we though demised, such as coreopsis. In some locations, hopefully, the nectar source will make a come back.

I know that, in other drought laden states, rain keep passing through .

I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[Mona Miller]

The same has been happening here where I am. Very little rain with each shower. And, then it rained hard and long on a day that I had to take my son back to college. It was nice to see the rain, but not having to drive for 8 hours in it. We were having cloud burst. It was so weird to see it raining in one particular area and the other areas getting nothing.

[Paul Cherubini]

We virtually lost all of our milkweed in our restored 5 acre prairie, due to drought.

It's normal for the syriaca milkweed to turn yellow, wilt and die back in August if there is a prolonged drought. But it doesn't necessarily mean the underground rhizome is dead. If your prairie milkweeds were first year seedlings then they might now be dead, but if they are 2nd or 3rd season plants then their rhizomes should survive and send up healthy shoots next May.

[blazing star]

Thanks my concern, Paul. The restoration is only several years old and a lot of what was starting to come up for the first time, this Spring, were seedlings. I was very surprised to see stuff bouncing back from dry, almost bare, ground with sporadic dead brown plants. I also saw little baby milkweeds coming up. It gave me hope that we may have not lost all of the restored sections of our property. Time will tell....

[Paul Cherubini]

Monday, August 20th, 2012 at 5:12 pm by Chip Taylor
It is now clear that fall population will be on the low side with an overwintering population close to 3 hectares once again. The best areas for the production of fall migrants appear to be northwest and central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan, and much of New England. Reports from New England suggest that the number of monarchs passing through Cape May will be higher than normal this fall. Elsewhere, we can expect the number of fall migrants to be similar to that seen over the last several years.

The reports to Journey North during the past two weeks paint a much bleaker picture for Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan; i.e. no reports of good numbers and no reports of roosts. The only bright spot is a region Chip doesn't mention: the high Plains: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas. I think the good numbers of monarchs in the high Plains will lead to reports of roosts in western and central Nebraska, western Kansas, eastern Colorado, far western Oklahoma, far western Texas and eastern New Mexico in September (and possibly the last few days of August in the Dakotas and Nebraska) just like we had last year. Alot of successive cold fronts. however, could push the main area of overnight roosts into central Kansas, west-central Oklahoma and west-central Texas.

[Mona Miller]

I love your predictions, they cover your butt whether they are right or wrong--don't they. And, they always list reasons why the other Monarch scientist are wrong. Instead of trying to work with the scientific community and the conservation groups, you go against them at almost every turn.

[Paul Cherubini]

Instead of trying to work with the scientific community and the conservation groups, you go against them at almost every turn.

I'm dedicated to seeking and promoting truth and understanding about monarchs, using video when possible. I find citizen scientists often come closer to discovering truth about monarchs. Like Debbie in Thunder Bay, Ontario's post several weeks ago about caterpillar devastation caused by predators. And the Journey North post below from long time Wisconsin observer Pat Swerkstrom who also says that a high population of monarch egg and caterpillar predators and the polyhedrosis virus, in some cases, (not milkweed condition, heat or drought) is the underlying reason monarch reproductive success was so poor in his State and surrounding States:

[Mona Miller]

I am ashamed of the information that you post. It isn't the truth. It is way beyond the truth.

And, when you post information from other sources, most of the time you clip it. You present half or non-truths. I think it's called lies.

[blazing star]

Citizen science can be a useful tool, but it can also cloud data when subjective posturing is imposed in reporting of the data. Paul, your posts are typically guilty of such subjective posturing so I'm not sure of what benefit you are to the reporting of citizen science.