Really, remote. But, how do you prove they are natural. You can assume, but you can't prove.
The reality is that everyone already knows that the Monarchs go from east to west and vice versa. All the scientists now agree on that. The issue is that some states don't allow transfer because of endangered milkweeds or other issues. Journey North has been following this issue for years.
Dr. Urquhart's tagging data from Monarch Watch website:http://www.monarchwatch.org/grafx/tagmig/u71map.gif
I guess from CA to Utah is not close enough.http://www.monarchwatch.org/grafx/tagmig/u81map.gif
California to 2/3s way across AZ.http://www.monarchwatch.org/grafx/tagmig/u94map.gif
From Idaho to UT and AZ http://www.learner.org/jnorth/tm/monarc ... gUtah.htmlhttp://www.learner.org/jnorth/fall2004/ ... 92404.html
Not All Monarchs Go to Mexico Utah Students Study “Western” Monarchs
Mr. Ron Hellstern of Byrum, Utah, wrote:
“My classes initiated the Intermountain Monarch Butterfly Project. We are associated with the Monarch Program of San Diego, and have helped them determine the winter migration destinations of Intermountain Monarchs.
“When we started this project back in 1994 there was little, if any, knowledge about the migration routes or roosts of the Intermountain Western population. My students helped to establish the baseline data, and recruit other schools along the western slope of the Rocky Mountains to assist in collecting this information.
"Thanks to some of our tags, our Monarchs have been spotted in Santa Cruz, California, which means these beautiful and delicate creatures cross the Great Basin Desert and the Sierra. Amazing!!! Our monarchs may not be going to Mexico, but we feel just as attached to them." http://www.greatbasinweb.com/gb2-3/monarch.htm
The Way of the Monarch, Michael Pyle http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/ ... ticle/544/
"I remember a day in western Colorado, motoring to a noted habitat with my graduate advisor, Charles Remington. A lone monarch perched among a throng of Charlotte’s fritillaries, fiery orange males, chocolatey females, nectaring on big purple bull thistles. I asked my professor where he thought that monarch would end up. The reigning idea was that all of the fall monarchs born west of the Continental Divide wintered on the California coast. We were on the western slope, all right, if by less than a hundred miles; but it was a long, hot, arid way due west to California, across the Great Basin. Could it not be just as likely that a monarch in the intermountain West might follow the major drainages southward—the Green, the Colorado—and wind up in Mexico? Besides, as a former kid collector who’d haunted the Colorado high country whenever possible, I had seen monarchs crossing the Rockies crest in both directions, and doubted its effectiveness as an ultimate barrier." http://10000birds.com/flyways-and-byways.htm
Monarchs use the same flyways as birds. Many are eaten along the way by migrating birds (esp. hawks).http://www.main.org/polycosmos/biosquat/ensom.htm
Surfing Climate Change-ENSO Migration & Birdcasting
I am one class away from getting my Natural History Certification. I think in more areas so I see more of a whole picture. http://www.monarchprogram.org/news/index.htm
"The Monarch Program has three spring tagged retrievals in Arizona from California and Baja California overwintering sites:
1. Santa Barbara, CA (7 Nov. 1987) to Portal, AZ (9 April), 565 miles
2. El Sauzal, B.C. (13 Dec. 1997) to Gila Bend, AZ (13 March), 250 miles
3. Santa Barbara, CA (Dec. or Jan. 2000) to Page, AZ (14 April), 480 miles"
"Nine Possible Reasons the Monarch Population is Changing and Why We Have New Butterfly Species in the Southwest" Scroll down and look at this.
"NEWS FLASH: WHAT ARE THE ODDS?
Nearly two months later, on December 8th, 2005, Marriott and a group of volunteers spotted the butterfly in a cluster of monarchs in Carpinteria at a site known as Carpinteria Creek (Santa Barbara County), about 145 miles straight line distance northwest of Camp Pendleton. One tagged monarch, one recovery -- this has never happened before. The datum continues to support Marriott’s research that monarchs fly northwest to sites that have cooler microclimates when the temperatures are too warm in the Southwest (click here for migration patterns and previous records)." http://www.fs.fed.us/monarchbutterfly/d ... Brower.pdf
Search on mountains, tagging, California. There's loads of historical migration information in this document. Here are a few:
Page 16 - end of second paragraph
"Inkersly (1911:283) provided the first detailed description of monarchs overwintering in Pacific Grove, and speculated that they probably originated in "the country west of the Rocky Mountains."
"Shepardson was the first person who clearly distinguished the eastern and western migratory populations of the monarch. She wrote: "It is presumed that those which are in the eastern and middle-western states go to the south during the cold weather, while those which winter near Pacific Grove come from a large part of the country lying west of the Rocky Mountains" (p. 29)....." continue reading this for some awesome info.
"Mary Barber (1918:5-6), in another overlooked and informative booklet, Winter Butterflies in Bolinas, stated that Bolinas (immediately north of San Francisco) "is the winter home of the Monarch butterfly which comes not only from the Sierra Nevada mountains but also from the western ranges of the Rockies." In describing the fall migration, she wrote "Thousands of these frail butterflies start on their long journey toward the Pacific, in search of a mild climate, free from frost and snow, in which they can live all winter."